黄河流域中心城市高质量发展测度与时空预测分析

High-Quality Development Measurement and Time-Space Prediction Analysis of the Central Cities in the Yellow River Basin

沿黄地区中心城市是黄河流域高质量发展的关键区域,为深入探讨中心城市对黄河流域整体高质量发展的“龙头”作用,从新发展理念出发构建包含32项指标的城市高质量发展评价体系,运用组合赋权法和高质量发展指数模型对沿黄中心城市2001—2018年的高质量发展水平进行测度,结合云模型定量评级,运用马尔科夫转移概率矩阵对高质量发展的转移趋势进行预测分析。结果表明:(1)2001—2018年沿黄中心城市高质量发展指数呈上升态势,但地区之间存在明显差异,排名前三城市的地理位置由上中游转移至中下游地区。(2)沿黄中心城市高质量发展存在“条件收敛”和“马太效应”现象,城市高质量发展在后期向更高等级升级的难度加大。(3)中心城市高质量发展等级转移受初始高质量发展和邻近城市发展等级的影响较大。最后,针对沿黄地区中心城市高质量发展中存在的问题提出可行性建议。

The central cities along the Yellow River are the key areas for high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin.In order to further explore the“leading”role of central cities in the overall high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin,this article builds an urban high-quality development evaluation index system which contains 32 indicators based on new development concepts.This paper uses the combination weighting method and high-quality development index model to evaluate the level of high-quality development of central cities from 2001 to 2018.And uses the Markov transition probability matrix to predict and analyze the transfer trend of the high-quality development combined with the cloud model quantitative rating.The results show that:(1)The high-quality development index of central cities along the Yellow River from 2001 to 2018 has shown an upward trend,but there are obvious differences between regions.The geographical location of top three cities shifted from the upper and middle reaches to the middle and lower reaches.(2)There are phenomena of“Conditional convergence”and“Matthew effect”in the high-quality development of central cities along the Yellow River,it is more difficult to upgrade the high-quality development of cities to higher level in the later stages.(3)The high-quality development level transfer of central cities is greatly affected by the initial high-quality development grade and the development levels of neighboring cities.Finally,feasible suggestions are put forward for the problems existing in the high-quality development of central cities along the Yellow River.