“中四角”水生态足迹地区差异的动态演进及其“空间-动力”因素研究

Study on the Dynamic Evolution and Its“Spatial-Dynamic”Factors of Regional Differences for Water Ecological Footprint in“Four-City Area in Middle China”

基于生态足迹理论,利用Kernel核密度估计法和Theil指数分解法分别探讨了2010—2019年“中四角”水生态足迹动态演进规律及其区域差异变动的内在机制。结果表明:研究期内,“中四角”和长株潭城市群水生态足迹区域分布出现轻微极化现象,武汉城市群出现多极化现象,环鄱阳湖城市群无极化现象,江淮城市群出现极化现象;“中四角”水生态足迹Theil指数呈周期波动下降趋势。在“空间”意义上,组内差异是影响“中四角”区域差异变动的决定因素;在“动力”意义上,产出资本比是导致“中四角”组内差异变动的关键因素;在不同时段,导致“中四角”水生态足迹组内差异变动的“空间”因素和“动力”因素具有一定差异性。

Based on the ecological footprint theory,the dynamic evolution law and the internal mechanism of regional differences variation of the water ecological footprint in“Four-City Area in Middle China”were investigated from 2010 to 2019 by using Kernel density estimation method and Theil index decomposition method.The results indicated that during the study period,the regional distribution of the water ecological footprint in“Four-City Area in Middle China”and Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration showed a slight polarization phenomenon,and there was a multi-polarization phenomenon in the Wuhan urban agglomeration,no polarization phenomenon in the Poyang Lake urban agglomeration,and a polarization phenomenon in the Jianghuai urban agglomeration.Theil index of water ecological footprint in“Four-City Area in Middle China”showed a downward trend of periodic fluctuations.From the viewpoint of space,the intraregional differences was the decisive factor affecting the variation of regional difference in“Four-City Area in Middle China”;from the aspect of dynamic factors,the capital-output ratio was the key factor leading to the variation of intraregional differences in“Four-City Area in Middle China”.In different periods,there were certain differences in the“spatial”and“dynamic”factors leading to the intraregional differences variation of the water ecological footprint in“Four-City Area in Middle China”.