不同土地利用情景下天津市生态系统服务及权衡与协同分析

Ecosystem services,trade-offs and synergy analysis in Tianjin under different land use scenarios

【目的】土地利用变化是导致生态系统服务及其关系变化的重要影响因素,探讨土地利用变化对生态系统服务影响具有重要意义。【方法】本研究基于2000和2015年天津市土地利用数据,结合区域发展规划,采用GeoSOS-FLUS模型预测2030年3种不同情景下的土地利用格局,并利用InVEST模型评估生态系统服务及权衡/协同关系。【结果】(1)2015-2030年,自然发展情景下城市继续扩张,建设用地增加27.68%,耕地下降11.47%。生态规划情景下城市扩张减缓,建设用地增加7.97%,林地、草地、水域和灌丛共增加2.02%。城市快速发展情景下建设用地和耕地基本保持稳定,水域面积增加4.78%。(2)2015-2030年不同情景下天津市综合生态系统服务指数均呈现下降趋势,其中自然发展、生态规划和城市快速发展情景下综合生态系统服务指数分别为0.172、0.181、0.180。(3)2015-2030年不同情景下4种生态系统服务的权衡/协同关系方向未变,但强弱发生了复杂的变化,总体上生态规划情景下协同关系更强,自然发展情景下协同关系更弱。【结论】本研究建议天津市未来应控制城市扩张速度、优化当前土地利用结构、增强生态环境建设。研究结果可为天津市生态系统管理提供理论基础。

[Objective] Land use change is an important factor leading to changes in ecosystem services and their relationships. It is significant to explore the impact of land use on ecosystem services.[Method] This study is based on the land use data of Tianjin in 2000 and 2015, combined with regional development planning, using the GeoSOS-FLUS model to predict the land use structure under three different situations in 2030, and using the InVEST model to evaluate ecosystem services and trade-offs.[Result](1) From 2015 to 2030, under the business as usual, cities continued to expand, construction land increased by 27.68%, and cultivated land decreased by 11.47%. Under the ecological planning, urban expansion slowed down, construction land increased by 7.97%, and woodland, grassland, waters and shrubs increased by 2.02%. Under the rapid urban development, construction land and cultivated land remained stable, and the water area increased by 4.78%.(2) From 2015 to 2030, the comprehensive ecosystem service index of Tianjin under different situations showed a downward trend. In 2030, the total ecosystem service indexes of business as usual, ecological planning and rapid urban development were 0.172, 0.181 and 0.180,respectively.(3) From 2015 to 2030, the direction of the synergy of the four ecosystem services under different situations had not changed, but the strengths and weaknesses had undergone complicated changes.In general, the synergy relationship was stronger under the ecological planning and weaker under the business as usual. [Conclusion] This study suggests that Tianjin City should slow the urban expansion,optimize the current land use structure, and enhance the ecological environment construction in the future.The research results can provide a theoretical basis of ecosystem management in Tianjin.