服务贸易、结构变迁与服务业全要素生产率--前向关联效应与后向关联效应

Services Trade,Structural Transition and Total Factor Productivity in Services Industry: Forward Linkage VS Backward Linkage

本文利用30个省份1997年、2002年、2007年和2012年共计120张投入产出表,结合双边服务贸易数据测算细分种类的服务贸易附加值,并在此基础上研究服务业前向关联和后向关联对全要素生产率的影响。研究结果表明:(1)服务贸易可以显著促进服务业全要素生产率提升;前向关联每提高10%,带动服务业TFP上升0.277%;后向关联每提高10%,带动服务业TFP上升0.882%。(2)随着产业结构变迁,服务贸易的后向关联效应依旧可以促进服务业全要素生产率,但是前向关联效应则无法为服务业TFP的增长提供支撑。(3)细分行业后发现,前向关联和后向关联对生产性服务业、消费性服务业和公共服务业的全要素生产率都有显著促进作用,但是结构变迁诱发前后向关联效应对TFP的影响主要体现在生产性服务业。因此,降低服务业准入门槛,发挥服务贸易前后向关联效应,对实现长期稳定经济增长具有重要的政策意义。

This paper uses a total of 120 input-output tables from 30 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions in 1997,2002,2007 and 2012,combined with bilateral service trade data to measure the value-added of service trade in the service trade segment.On this basis,we empirically study the impact of forward and backward correlation effects on total factor productivity of service industry.The results show that(1)Service trade can significantly promote the improvement of the total factor productivity of the service industry;for every 10%increase in forward correlation,service TFP rises by 0.277%,and for every 10%increase in backward correlation,service TFP rises by 0.882%.(2)With the change of industrial structure,the backward correlation effect of ser-vice trade can still promote the total factor productivity of service industry,but the forward correlation effect can not provide support for the growth of service industry TFP.(3)After subdividing the industry,the forward correlation and backward correlation have a significant effect on the total factor productivity of producer services,consumer services and public services,but the backward correlation effect induced by structural change is mainly reflected in producer services.Therefore,reducing the barriers to entry in the service industry and developing service trade have important policy implications for improving the productivity of the service industry and achieving long-term stable economic growth.