政策风险抑制生猪企业扩张了吗?--基于政策不确定性视角的分析

Have Policy Risks Inhibited Expansion of Live Pig Enterprises?--Analysis Based on Perspective of Policy Uncertainty

我国猪价仍呈现出周期性变动的特征,政策是影响生猪产业发展的重要因素。生猪产能作为供给的表现形式,直接影响生猪价格,研究生猪企业扩张是稳定生猪供给、平抑猪周期的重要切入点。以全部生猪上市企业为样本,从政策不确定性的视角,采用固定效应模型实证分析政策风险对生猪企业扩张的抑制作用,在此基础上讨论干中学效应产生的影响。研究发现,一是政策不确定性显著抑制了生猪企业扩张;二是企业成立年限、经历重大疫情、经历猪周期次数交互作用形成的干中学效应能促进生猪企业扩张;三是干中学效应能够降低政策不确定性对生猪企业扩张的抑制作用。机制分析结果表明,生猪企业利润导向致其规避政策不确定性风险。可见,保持产业政策相对稳定、促进生猪企业规模化发展、提高生物安全水平有助于稳定生猪企业投资扩张,促进产业稳定健康发展。

China's pig prices still show the characteristics of cyclical changes,and the policy is an important factor affecting the development of the live pig industry.As a form of supply,live pig production capacity directly affects the price of live pigs.Studying the expansion of live pig enterprises is an important entry point to stabilize the supply of live pigs and calm down the pig cycle.Taking all the listed pig enterprises as the sample,from the perspective of policy uncertainty,the fixed-effect model was used to empirically analyze the inhibitory effect of policy risk on the expansion of pig enterprises.Besides,the effect of learning by doing was discussed.The study found that:first,the policy uncertainty significantly inhibited the expansion of pig enterprises;second,the learning by doing formed by the years of establishment,the experience of pig cycle number and pig epidemic could promote the expansion of pig enterprises;third,the learning by doing effect could reduce the inhibitory effect of policy uncertainty on the expansion of pig enterprises.The mechanism analysis results showed that the profit orientation of pig enterprises led to avoiding policy uncertainties.It could be seen that maintaining the relative stability of industrial policies,promoting the large-scale development of pig enterprises and improving the bio-safety level would help to stabilize the investment and expansion of live pig enterprises,and promote the stable and healthy development of the industry.