气候变化适应性行为对牧户收入的影响研究--以内蒙古为例

Study on the Impact of Climate Change Adaptive Behaviors on Herdsmen's Income--A Case Study of Inner Mongolia

基于内蒙古草原牧区牧户微观调研数据的实证分析,探讨气候变化适应性行为对畜牧业收入的影响。研究表明,气候变化适应性行为、从事畜牧业劳动力数量、存栏牲畜数量、距旗政府的距离、是否转入草场、是否饲养肉羊(肉牛)与肉羊(肉牛)销售价格的交互项、年累积平均降水量、是否位于典型草原对畜牧业收入均具有显著影响,采取气候变化适应性行为能促使畜牧业收入提升1.963%。其中,采取工程类+非工程类适应性行为对畜牧业收入的促进作用最显著,仅采取工程类适应性行为次之,仅采取非工程类适应性行为作用最小;相较位于荒漠的牧户,位于典型草原牧户的气候变化适应性行为对畜牧业收入的影响程度均更显著。基于此,提出提升人力资本水平、完善信息共享机制建设、推进工程类和非工程类适应性行为并行等政策建议。

Based on the empirical analysis of micro survey data of herdsmen in grassland pastoral areas of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,the impact of climate change adaptive behaviors on animal husbandry income was discussed.The results showed that many factors had significant impacts on animal husbandry income,including the adaptive behaviors of climate change,the number of labor force engaged in animal husbandry,the number of livestock in stock,the distance from the banner government,whether to transfer in grassland,whether to raise mutton sheep(beef cattle)and the interaction item of mutton sheep(beef cattle)sales price,the annual cumulative average precipitation and whether it was located in a typical grassland.Adopting climate change adaptive behaviors could increase animal husbandry income by 1.963%.Among them,taking both engineering and non-engineering adaptive behaviors had the most significant effect on the income of animal husbandry,followed by only engineering adaptive behaviors,and only non-engineering adaptive behaviors had the least effect.Compared with herdsmen in desert,herdsmen in typical grassland had a more significant impact on animal husbandry income.