中国实现“双碳”目标的潜在成本 及其分担机制研究

Research on Potential Cost and Sharing Mechanism of Achieving"Double-carbon"Goal in China

2030年实现碳达峰、2060年实现碳中和是中国作为负责任的大国为应对全球气候变化提出的目标,也是中国推动经济高质量发展的必然要求与应有之义。本文从分析实现碳达峰、碳中和的中国潜在成本及其参与主体分担机制出发,指出中国存在压期成本与压峰成本,需要多方共同分担成本。通过对欧盟和美国减排成本分担机制研究,认为欧盟主要通过市场机制分担碳达峰到碳中和的成本,即征收碳税,提高企业成本,推动消费者转向低碳绿色产品购买,提升企业研发积极性,促使企业向区域外转移,产生“污染避难所”效应。美国主要通过政策与市场双重作用分担成本,在发展初期采用政策约束的方式促进可再生能源的使用,中后期则依托市场来进行分担。借鉴欧美成本分担机制,本文提出中国需要依托政府、居民和企业来分担潜在成本,且不同时间段发挥作用的主体亦有所差异,在市场机制下建立政府、企业和居民潜在成本分担机制,可为推进碳达峰、碳中和目标的实现提供政策支撑。

As a responsible country,China aims to Achievie carbon peak in 2030 and carbon neutrality in 2060 in proposes to global climate change,and it is also an inevitable requirement and due duty for China to promote high-quality economic development.Starting from the analysis of potential costs and the sharing mechanism of the participants of achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality in China,this paper points out there are costs of pressure in carbon emission reduction period and carbon peak,which needs to be shared through multi-party efforts.Through the research on the cost-sharing mechanism of emission reduction in the EU and the United States,it is believed that the EU mainly shares the cost of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality through market mechanisms,that is,levying carbon tax,increasing the cost of enterprises,promoting consumers to switch to low-carbon green product purchases,enhancing the enthusiasm of enterprises in research and development,prompting enterprises to move out of the region,resulting in a"pollution shelter"effect.The United States mainly shares the costs through the dual function of policy and market.In the early stage of development,policy constraints are adopted to promote the use of renewable energy,while in the middle and late stage,the costs are shared by the market.Referring to the costs sharing mechanism in Europe and the United States,this paper proposes that the potential costs of carbon peak and carbon neutrality should be shared by the government,residents and enterprises,and the main bodies that play a role in different periods are also different.Under the establishment of the market mechanism,the potential costs sharing mechanism among the government,enterprises and residents will provide policy support for the realization of carbon peak and carbon neutrality.