湖南制造业高质量发展的演进历程及趋势分析——兼论双循环发展新格局背景下的路径探讨

Evolution Process and Trend Analysis of Manufacturing High-quality Development in Hunan Province:On the Path under the Background of a New Dual Circulation Development Pattern

制造业是构建双循环发展新格局的重要阵地。结合湖南制造业高质量发展的内涵和相关文献,从规模效益、创新能力和智能制造、品牌与质量、绿色低碳发展和国际竞争力五个维度构建反映其高质量发展的综合测度指标,利用2013—2020年相关数据,借助主成分分析法对湖南制造业高质量发展的演进历程及趋势进行实证分析,并提取出创新水平、活力水平、潜力水平和基础水平四个主成分。研究结果表明,湖南的制造业高质量发展水平呈现出稳步提升的演进态势,但也存在品牌与质量、规模效益和绿色低碳发展等高质量发展方面的一些差距。对此提出未来要更好地对接双循环发展新格局战略,采取补短板锻长板的原则,多点发力支撑湖南制造业的高质量发展迈上一个新台阶。

The manufacturing industry is an important position for building a new dual circulation development pattern.This study combines the connotation of the high-quality development of manufacturing industry and related literature in Hunan province,and constructs a comprehensive measurement indicator reflecting its high-quality development from five dimensions,including scale efficiency,innovation capability and intelligent manufacturing,brand and quality,green and low-carbon development,and international competitiveness.It employs relevant data from 2013 to 2020 and uses principal component analysis to conduct an empirical analysis of the evolution process and trends of the high-quality development of Hunan’s manufacturing industry,and four principal components are extracted:innovation level,vitality level,potential level and basic level.The research results show that the high-quality development level of Hunan’s manufacturing industry is showing a steady improvement trend,but there are also some gaps in high-quality development such as brand and quality,scale efficiency,green and low-carbon development.In this regard,it is proposed that in the future,it is necessary to better relay a dual circulation development pattern strategy,adopt the principle of making up the short board and forging the long board,and make more efforts to support the high-quality development of manufacturing industry upgrading to a new level in Hunan province.