河南省粮食生产时空格局变化及其驱动因素

Spatial-temporal pattern changes and driving factors of grain yield in Henan Province

【目的】河南省作为粮食生产大省,研究其粮食产量时空格局变化及其驱动因素对稳定粮食安全具有重要的现实意义。【方法】以1999—2018年河南省123个县域粮食产量为基本数据,借助趋势产量模型、空间自相关、标准差椭圆以及地理加权回归模型等方法对河南省粮食产量的时空变化以及驱动因素进行分析。【结果】从时间上看,河南省粮食产量呈现线性增长趋势,2003年粮食产量波动最大,2005—2006年粮食产量增长率最高。从空间上看,河南省粮食产量在空间上呈现出显著的正相关性,具有明显的空间集聚特征,高—高、低—低是主要的空间聚类模式,且粮食生产重心向东南方向转移。从驱动因素上看,粮食播种面积是河南省粮食增产的关键因素,化肥提纯量、农药使用量、农业机械总动力、总人口以及第一产业从业人员对粮食生产有正向作用也有负向作用,除化肥提纯量和总人口外,其他影响因素的回归系数高、低值区在空间上发生明显转移。【结论】为继续保障河南省粮食安全,推动粮食增产,需进一步加大对粮食生产的政策扶持力度;维持耕地面积基本不变,加强耕地质量保护;积极发展农业适度规模经营,实现资源利用最大化。

【Objective】Henan Province is a major grain produccing province,so it is of important practical significance to study the spatial-temporal pattern changes and driving factors of grain yield to stabilize food security.【Method】Using the grain yield of 123 counties in Henan Province from 1999 to 2018 as the basic data,the trend production model,spatial autocorrelation,standard deviation ellipse and geographically weighted regression model were adopted to analyze the spatial-temporal changes and driving factors of grain yield in Henan Province.【Result】In terms of time,the grain yield of Henan Province,fluctuating the most in 2003,showed a linear growth trend,and the grain yield growth rate was the highest in 2005—2006.From the spatial point of view,the grain yield of Henan Province showed a significant positive correlation in space,with obvious spatial aggregation characteristics.High-high and low-low patterns were the main spatial clustering patterns,and the gravity center of grain yield shifted to the southeast.From the perspective of driving factors,the grain sown area was a key factor in increasing grain yield in Henan Province,the amount of purified chemical fertilizers,the amount of pesticides used,the total power of agricultural machinery,the total population and the primary industry employees had both positive and negative effects on grain yield.Except for the amount of chemical fertilizer purification and the total population,the areas with high and low regression coefficients of other influencing factors had shifted significantly in space.【Conclusion】In order to continue to ensure the food security of Henan Province and promote the increase of grain production,it is necessary to further increase the policy support for grain production,keep the area of cultivated land basically unchanged and protect the quality of arable land,and actively develop an appropriate scale of agricultural operations to maximize resource utilization.