基于层次分析法-德尔菲法的配电网不停电作业能力评估和分析

Evaluation and Analysis of Uninterrupted Operation Capacity in Distribution Network Based on AHP-Delphi Method

配电网不停电作业是提高供电可靠性的重要技术手段。为持续提升配电网不停电作业能力,探讨分析配网不停电作业能力影响因素,并精准找出关键因素,提出基于层次分析法德尔菲法的配电网不停电作业能力评估和分析方法。首先,列出配电网不停电作业能力的影响因素,构建影响因素层次评估指标体系;然后,运用德尔菲法构造判断矩阵和AHP计算分析,并输出影响因素权重系数,为决策者精准施策提供依据;最后,结合某地区配电网不停电作业现状进行验证分析。结果表明,所提方法可以准确判断出影响因素的重要程度,可以精准高效利用现有资源,持续提升配电网不停电作业能力,实现整体效益的最大化。

Uninterrupted operation in distribution network is an important technical hand to improve the reliability of power supply.In order to continuously improve the uninterrupted operation capacity in distribution network,explore and analyze the influencing factors of uninterruptible operation capacity in distribution network,and accurately find out the key factors,the evaluation and analysis method of uninterruptible operation capacity in distribution network based on the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)-Delphi method is proposed.Firstly,the influencing factors of uninterrupted operation capacity in distribution network are listed,and the hierarchical evaluation index system of influencing factors is constructed.Then,the judgment matrix is constructed by Delphi method and AHP is used to calculate and analyze,and the weight coefficient of influencing factors is output to provide the basis for the decision-makers to implement policies accurately.Finally,combined with the status of uninterrupted operation capacity in distribution network in a certain area,it is verified and analyzed.The results show that the method can accurately judge the importance of the influencing factors,accurately and efficiently use existing resources,improve the ability of uninterrupted operation capacity in distribution network continuously,and maximize the overall benefits.