社区社会化养老服务需求与供给偏离的现状及影响因素研究

Research on the status quo and influencing factors of the deviation between demand and supply of community socialized pension service

随着中国人均寿命的不断提升,养老问题日益凸显。基于中国老年健康影响因素跟踪调查(CLHLS)项目2005年-2018年间的5期数据,采用描述性统计分析社区社会化服务需求与供给偏离的现状,运用面板Logit模型分析其影响因素。实证研究发现:在供需偏离方面,社区社会化养老服务需求一直大于供给,其中生活照料服务和精神文化服务缺口最明显;在需求与供给偏离的影响因素方面,居住地、子女性别结构、锻炼频率对总偏离有显著的正向影响,受教育状况对总偏离有显著的负向影响。

With the continuous improvement of life expectancy in China,the pension problem has become increasingly prominent.Using data from five rounds of the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey(CLHLS)spanning from 2005 to 2018,the paper gives descriptive statistics to analyze the status quo of the deviation between the demand and supply of community social services,coupled with the panel logit model to analyze the influencing factors.The results show that,in the aspect of the deviation between supply and demand,the demand for community socialized elderly care services has always been greater than the supply,the lack of life care services and spiritual and cultural services being the most obvious.And in the aspect of the influencing factors of demand and supply deviation,the paper finds that the residence,the children's gender structure and the exercise frequency have a significant positive impact on the total deviation,while the education background has a significant negative impact on the total deviation.