基于GRA的中国入境旅游市场影响因素实证研究

Empirical research on influencing factors of inbound tourism market in China based on the GRA

采用灰色关联分析法,以各客源国来华旅游人次作为参考序列,以离境人数、国际旅游支出、汇率、GDP增长率和人均GDP增长5个影响指标作为比较序列,对2009—2018年中国主要的客源国进行研究.结果表明,客源国的离境人数、国际旅游支出、汇率、GDP增长率和人均GDP增长5个指标与来华入境旅游人次的总体关联度大,影响显著,但经济因素(GDP增长率和人均GDP增长)对来华入境旅游的影响力比汇率的影响力更为显著;5个指标影响力在不同客源国有差异,汇率的影响在韩国和俄罗斯相对较大,国际旅游支出和离境人数的影响在美国和加拿大相对要强,经济因素(GDP增长率和人均GDP增长)的影响在美国影响力相对要弱,离境人数的影响在澳大利亚相对要明显.中国旅游企业及相关部门应根据各客源国影响因素的差异、各客源国宏观经济的周期性波动以及替代性目的地产生的竞争关系,制定不同政策,采取不同营销策略.

Using grey correlation analysis method,the number of inbound tourists from each source country is taken as the reference sequence,and the number of outbound tourists,international tourism expenditure,exchange rate,GDP growth rate and per capita GDP growth are taken as the comparison sequence.The main source countries of China from 2009 to 2018 were studied.The research results show that the number of tourists leaving,international tourism expenditure,exchange rate,GDP growth rate and per capita GDP growth rate of the source countries have a significant correlation with the overall number of inbound tourism to China,but economic factors(GDP growth rate and per capita GDP growth rate)have a more significant influence on inbound tourism to China than the exchange rate.Five indexes influence in different customers state-owned differences,the impact of exchange rate in South Korea and Russia is opposite bigger,the effects of international tourism spending and departure from the toll in the United States and Canada are relatively stronger,economic factors(GDP growth rate and per capita GDP growth)in the United States is relatively weak,the influence of the number of departure in Australia is relatively obvious.Chinese tourism enterprises and related departments should formulate different policies and adopt different marketing strategies according to the difference of influencing factors of each tourist source country,the cyclical fluctuation of macro-economy of each tourist source country and the competition relationship between alternative destinations.