河南农业全要素生产率的时空差异及其驱动因素分析

Analysis on Temporal and Spatial Differences and Driving Factors of Agricultural Total Factor Productivity in Henan Province

在国际粮食市场受不确定因素的影响异常波动以及国内农业供给面临结构性问题的背景下,河南省作为传统农业大省,在保障农业供给和粮食安全方面具有重要作用。课题组分析河南省近10年的农业全要素生产率及其驱动因素,以期能够全面了解河南省农业近期发展状况,并为河南省农业提质增效提供参考。课题组采用Malmquist-DEA模型,研究分析河南省18个地市2011—2019年农业全要素生产率在时间和空间上的动态变化特征,并进一步采用固定效应模型对其驱动因素进行分析。结果显示:近10年河南省农业全要素生产率在波动中呈向上发展的趋势;在地域差异分析中,受技术效率的波动影响,局部波动较为明显,整体差异不大;在驱动因素分析中,教育和城镇化率对全要素生产率具有显著的正向影响。在观测年间,河南省农业全要素生产率在时间上存在较为明显的差异变化,在地域分布上存在局部波动。为保障粮食安全,稳定粮食产出,应该促进技术进步与技术效率提高相匹配;促进适度规模经营,激活农业规模效益;以提质增效为发力点,促进农业产业持续良性发展。

Under the background of the abnormal fluctuation of international grain market affected by uncertain factors and the structural problems of domestic agricultural supply,Henan Province,as a traditional agricultural province,plays an important role in ensuring agricultural supply and food security.The research group analyzes the agricultural total factor productivity and its driving factors in Henan Province in recent ten years,in order to fully understand the recent development of agriculture in Henan Province and provide reference for improving agricultural quality and efficiency in Henan Province.The research group used Malmquist-DEA model to study and analyze the dynamic change characteristics of agricultural total factor productivity in time and space in 18 cities of Henan Province from 2011 to 2019,and further used fixed effect model to analyze its driving factors.The results showed that the agricultural total factor productivity in Henan Province showed an upward trend in fluctuation in recent ten years;In the analysis of regional difference,affected by the fluctuation of technical efficiency,the local fluctuation is obvious and the overall difference is small;The analysis of driving factors shows that education and urbanization rate have a significant positive impact on total factor productivity.During the observation years,there are obvious differences and changes in time and local fluctuations in regional distribution of agricultural total factor productivity in Henan Province.In order to ensure national food security and stabilize food output,we should promote the matching of technological progress with the improvement of technological efficiency;Promote moderate scale operation and activate agricultural scale benefits;Take improving quality and efficiency as the starting point to promote the sustained and sound development of agricultural industry.