我国大陆红火蚁入侵扩张趋势长期预测

Long-term predication of red imported fire ant (Solenopsis invicta Buren) expansion in China's Mainland

红火蚁Solenopsis invicta Buren是一种严重危害农林业生产、生命健康、公共安全和生态环境的国际性重大外来入侵害虫。2004年9月中国大陆首次发现红火蚁,2021年12月该蚁已入侵了12个省区近500个县区。本研究根据中国大陆红火蚁入侵发生县区数量变化,结合潜在适生区域评价信息,建立了红火蚁入侵县区数量与入侵时间长度间关系模型,并对入侵县区数量变化趋势作出长期预测。当中国大陆红火蚁潜在入侵县区数量上限分别为1400、1500和1600个时,入侵县区数量与入侵时间长度关系模型分别为N=1400/(1+e^(5.4048-0.1784T))、N=1500/(1+e^(5.4335-0.1757T))和N=1600/(1+e^(5.464-0.1734T))。基于以上模型的分析结果显示,我国红火蚁快速扩散传播从2009-2010年开始,快速扩张期可能持续26~28年,年平均新增县区41~52个/年,预测2035-2037年入侵县区数量增长速率将开始减缓,2041-2043年及之后将进入缓慢增长期。

Red imported fire ant(Solenopsis invicta Buren) was a dangerous invasive pest,which could have tremendous damage and impact on agricultural and forestry production,human life and health,public safety and ecological environment.S.invicta was first detected in China's Mainland in September,2004,and now has infected about 500 counties of 12 provinces till December,2021.Based on the data of infected counties and potential distribution area of S.invicta in China's Mainland,models of the relationship between infected counties of S.invicta and invasion duration were established.When maximum quantity of infected counties reached 1 400,1 500,and 1 600,the models describing the relationship between quantity of infected counties and duration after invading China's Mainland were presented as N=1400/(1+e^(5.4048-0.1784T)),N=1500/(1+e^(5.4335-0.1757T)), and N=1600/(1+e^(5.464-0.1734T)),respectively.The analysis results based on the above models showed that the rapid expansion period of fire ant in China started from 2009-2010,and could last for 26~28 years with annual average number of 41~52 newly infected counties.It was predicted that growth rate of the quantity of infected counties would begin to slow down from 2035 to 2037,and enter a slow growth period from 2041 to 2043 and beyond.