我国取消电价补贴的经济影响——基于电价管制及完全竞争市场的分析

The economic impact of abolishing electricity price subsidies in china:Analysis based on electricity price regulation market and perfect competition market

通过构建电力部门细分的CGE模型,分别在电价管制和完全竞争市场背景下,评估了取消电价交叉补贴和可再生能源电价补贴,以及引入碳税政策并将碳税收入转移支付给风电及光伏行业的经济影响.研究发现:取消电价交叉补贴对GDP有负面影响,而取消可再生能源电价补贴后GDP有所提升;相比完全竞争市场,电价管制市场背景下取消电价交叉补贴对GDP的负面冲击强度增加了0.003%,而取消可再生能源电价补贴对GDP的促进作用幅度则相对减小0.056%;同时取消两种补贴时,在电价管制市场背景下GDP相比基准情景下降了0.022%,而在完全竞争市场背景下GDP则增加了0.038%.电价管制市场背景下取消电价补贴对电力结构及能源结构影响较小;而在完全竞争市场背景下取消电价补贴将刺激传统电力消费并导致碳排放有所增加.引入碳税政策并将碳税收入转移支付给风电及光伏行业可以有效控制碳排放并促进电力结构和能源结构改善,但会对行业总产出和GDP产生更大的负面冲击.我国未来应适度放开电价管制,并采取诸如适时征收碳税并将其收入转移支付给风电和光伏行业的支持性政策,推动我国能源结构优化和节能减排目标的实现.

A CGE model features an electricity sector subdivision was used to evaluate the economic impact of the following four measures under the electricity price regulation market and the perfect competition market:The abolition of cross-subsidy to electricity price.The abolition of the subsidy to renewable electricity price.Introduction of carbon tax policy.Recycling the carbon tax revenue to the wind power and photovoltaic industries.Results show that the abolition of the cross-subsidy system of electricity price will result in negative impact on GDP,and the adverse effect will increase by 0.003%under the electricity price regulation market when compared with the perfect competition market.There are contrary results that GDP will increase after abolition of the subsidy to renewable electricity price,and the positive effect will decrease by 0.056%under the electricity price regulation market comparing with the perfect competition market.The GDP will decrease by 0.022%under the electricity regulation market but increase by 0.038%under the perfect competition market separately when both cross-subsidy system of electricity price and the subsidy to renewable electricity price cancelled.Abolition of both across-subsidy system of electricity price and the subsidy to renewable electricity price only have very small impacts on power structure and energy structure under the electricity regulation market,but it will effectively stimulate the consumption of traditional electricity commodities and result in an increase in carbon emissions.Levying carbon tax and related transferring carbon tax revenue to the wind power and photovoltaic industries can effectively reduce carbon emissions and promote the improvement of power and energy structure,but will have additional negative impact on the total output of all industries and GDP.Therefore,the electricity price regulation should be lifted moderately,and the supporting policies such as levying carbon tax and transferring its revenue to the wind power and photovoltaic industries can be adopted in time in order to optimize China's energy structure and achieve the goal of China’s energy-conservation and emission-reduction.