考虑心理因素及社会网络影响的电动汽车购买意愿研究

Purchase Intention of Electric Vehicles Considering Influence of Psychological Factors and Social Network

为进一步促进电动汽车的普及和使用,在系统选取影响消费者购买电动汽车意愿相关变量的基础上,通过构建结合结构方程模型和离散选择模型的混合选择模型,采用极大似然估计法得到模型的参数估计结果,以此探究消费者个体属性、车辆属性、心理潜变量及社会网络变量对其电动汽车购买意愿的影响,并以上海市为例进行分析。研究发现,技术信任心理潜变量在0.01显著性水平下对消费者的购买意愿具有负向影响,且年龄越大、收入越高、受教育程度越高、家庭车辆数越多的消费者会更加期待和信任电动汽车新技术;社会网络变量在0.01显著性水平下对消费者的购买意愿具有正向影响,相比于社会公众评价(估计值为0.226)和新媒体途径分享的信息(估计值为0.256),消费者购买电动汽车的意愿更容易受家人、朋友分享(估计值为0.426)的影响。基于以上研究结果,建议在完善电动汽车购买相关优惠政策的基础上,进一步加强电动汽车的技术研发,提升电动汽车的使用安全性和充电便捷性,同时在消费者所处的社会网络中积极宣传电动汽车产品的优势,从而促进电动汽车的推广使用和低碳交通的发展。

In order to furtherly promote the popularization and the use of electric vehicles,on the basis of systematically selecting relevant variables that affect consumers'willingness to buy electric vehicles,this paper established a hybrid choice model combining structural equation model and discrete choice model,and obtained the parameters of the model by using the maximum likelihood estimation method.The estimated results were used to explore the influence of consumers'individual attributes,vehicle attributes,psychological latent variables and social network variables on consumers'purchase intention.This study took Shanghai city as an example to analyze.Research results showed that the psychological latent variable of technology trust had a negative impact on consumers'purchase intention at the significance level of 0.01,and consumers with older age,higher income,higher education level and more family vehicles would expect and trust the new technology of electric vehicles.In addition,social network variables had a positive impact on consumers′purchase intention at the significance level of 0.01.Compared with the information shared by social public evaluation(estimated value was 0.226)and new media(estimated value was 0.256),consumers′purchase intention of electric vehicles was more likely to be affected by the information shared by family or friends(estimated value was 0.426).Based on the above research results,it is suggested to furtherly strengthen the technical research and development of electric vehicles on the basis of improving the preferential policies related to the purchase of electric vehicles,continuously improve the safety and charging convenience of electric vehicles,and actively publicize the advantages of electric vehicle products in the social network of consumers,so as to furtherly promote the use of electric vehicles and the development of lowcarbon transportation.