中国棉花进口市场国别分析及发展潜力研究

Country Analysis and Development Potential of China's Cotton Import Market

棉花作为仅次于粮食的第二大经济农作物对纺织行业有着主导性的影响。通过总结中国棉花进口贸易发展现状,发现中国棉花进口市场的国别高度集中,美国、印度、巴西、澳大利亚、乌兹别克斯坦是排名居前5位的进口来源国,中国对国际棉花市场的依赖度较高;通过构建随机前沿引力模型测算了中国从前十大来源国进口棉花的贸易潜力。结果显示,棉花来源国国内生产总值、人均可支配收入、签署双边贸易协定等变量对中国棉花进口均显著,对中国进口棉花的数量具有正向作用;中国从马里、乌兹别克斯坦、喀麦隆的棉花进口潜力基本饱和,而对澳大利亚、巴西、墨西哥的棉花进口仍有潜力。基于此,中国应尽快促成棉花进口市场的多元化,挖掘与其他国家棉花领域及相关产业链的合作潜力。最后,提出了稳定中国棉花进口市场的对策建议,即挖掘替代市场,实现棉花进口来源国多元化;巩固传统进口来源国,提高棉花自给率;健全棉花期货市场,提高定价话语权。

As the second largest economic crop after grain,cotton has a leading impact on the textile industry.By summarizing the development status of China's cotton import trade,it was found that China's cotton imports are highly concentrated in different countries,the United States,India,Brazil,Australia and Uzbekistan are the top five import source countries,and China highly depends on the international cotton market.By constructing a stochastic frontier gravity model,the trade potential of cotton imports from China's top ten source countries was estimated.The results showed that the variables of cotton import source country such as Gross Domestic Product,per capita disposable income and the signing of bilateral trade agreements are significant to China's cotton import,and have a positive effect on the quantity of China's cotton import.China's cotton import potential from Mali,Uzbekistan and Cameroon is basically saturated,while there is still potential for cotton import from Australia,Brazil and Mexico.Based on this,China should promote the diversification of cotton import market as soon as possible and tap the cooperation potential with other countries in cotton field and related industrial chains.Finally,countermeasures and suggestions to stabilize China's cotton import market were put forward,namely,tapping the alternative market to realize the diversification of cotton import source countries,consolidating the traditional import source countries and increasing the cotton self-sufficiency rate,improving the cotton futures market to increase the voice of pricing.