韩国对中美战略博弈的认知、因应与中韩关系走向

The ROK’s Perception of and Response to China-US Strategic Game and the Trend of China-ROK Relations

韩国既是美国的盟友,又是中国的重要伙伴,在中美战略博弈日趋加剧的背景下,韩国正面临着越来越大的“选边站”压力。围绕对中美博弈的研判和因应,韩国国内存在着“亲美平衡论”、“中国便车论”、“独立自主论”、“现状维持论”和“超越外交论”五种观点的激烈争论。文在寅执政之初,基于中美并重的认知,韩国保持战略模糊,避免在两大国间站队;但到了执政后期,受一系列内外因素的影响,文在寅政府在坚持中美平衡之余,对美追随的倾向也有所加强。来自保守阵营的尹锡悦担任总统后,受其对朝政策的不确定性、韩国内部保守化倾向增强以及俄乌冲突的影响,韩国向美国靠拢的态势可能更加明显,但基于中韩间紧密的经济联系、进步阵营在国会内的优势和韩国长期奉行的务实外交传统,维持中韩关系稳定发展的动力和可能性依然存在。

Amid the intensifying China-US strategic game,the ROK,as both an ally of the United States and an important partner of China,is facing increasing pressure to pick sides.Within the ROK,there have been fierce debates on how to respond,with various opinions coming up including siding with the US to balance against China, taking the free ride of China’s development, focusing on the ROK’s own independent strength, maintaining the status quo, and transcending the conventional diplomatic framework. At the beginning of the Moon Jae-in administration, the ROK kept strategic ambiguity and avoided taking sides based on the recognition that China and the US are equally important. However, influenced by a series of internal and external factors, the Moon government in its later stage demonstrated increasing tendency to follow the US while sticking to the balance between the two powers. Under the conservative presidency of Yoon Suk-yeol, the ROK may move closer to the US given the uncertainty of his policy toward North Korea, the increasing conservative tendency domestically, and the impacts of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. However, based on the close economic ties between China and the ROK, the progressive majority in the National Assembly and the ROK’s long-standing pragmatic diplomatic traditions, the momentum and the possibility still exists for China-ROK relations to maintain steady development.