辽宁省人口结构变迁对经济增长的影响研究--基于14个地级市面板数据的实证分析

Study on the Influence of Population Structure Change on Economic Growth in Liaoning Province:Empirical Analysis Based on Panel Data of 14 Prefecture Level Cities

在国家卫健委提出东北地区可以立足本地实际、探索实施全面放开生育政策的试点方案背景下,阐述辽宁省14个地级市2000年以来人口结构变迁基本特征,利用辽宁省14个地级市2000~2018年人口相关面板数据建立计量模型进行实证分析。结果表明,无论全省还是三大经济区总人口规模和就业人口规模均对经济增长呈现正向促进作用,城镇登记失业人口对各地经济增长起到明显的抑制作用,老年人口比例的较快增长对全省各地经济增长均呈现出负向影响作用。因此,倡导政府采取有效措施提高人口出生率,增加人口净流入,挖掘老龄人口市场潜力等。

In view of the background that the national health and Health Commission recently proposed that the northeast region can explore and implement the pilot program of comprehensively liberalizing the birth policy based on the local reality,this paper systematically expounds the basic characteristics of population structure changes of 14 prefecture level cities in Liaoning Province since 2000.At the same time,from the perspective of population structure change,this paper uses the population related panel data of 14 prefecture level cities in Liaoning Province from 2000 to 2018 to establish an econometric model for empirical analysis.The results show that both the total population size and the employment population size of the province and the three major economic regions have a positive effect on economic growth,the registered unemployed population in cities and towns has a significant inhibitory effect on the economic growth of various regions,the rapid growth of the proportion of the elderly population has a negative impact on the economic growth of all parts of the province.Therefore,we should advocate the government to take effective measures to improve the birth rate,to take effective measures to increase the inflow of population,and to actively tap the market potential of the elderly population.