基于PSO-BP-DEMETEL模型的煤矿瓦斯爆炸风险因素分析

Analysis on risk factors of coal mine gas explosion based on PSO-BP-DEMETEL model

为了系统分析瓦斯爆炸风险因素,促进煤矿安全高效生产,基于人为因素、环境条件、生产设施和管理组织4个维度构建煤矿瓦斯爆炸风险因素指标体系,利用粒子群优化算法优化BP神经网络得到风险因素间的直接关联矩阵,进而使用DEMATEL方法计算影响度、被影响度、中心度和原因度,分析得出强驱动型风险因素和驱动型风险因素,并利用熵权法计算各风险因素综合重要度,根据排序结果得到影响煤矿瓦斯爆炸的关键风险因素。结果表明:安全教育培训与执行、安全管理组织机构、安全管理文化氛围、员工安全意识、安全科技与投入是瓦斯爆炸灾害风险防范的关键所在。

In order to systematically analyze the risk factors of gas explosion and promote the safe and efficient production of coal mines,the research first builds a coal mine gas explosion risk factor index system based on four dimensions of human factors,environmental conditions,production facilities and management organizations.Secondly,the particle swarm optimization algorithm is used to optimize the BP neural network to obtain the direct correlation matrix between risk factors,and then the DEMATEL method is used to calculate the influence degree,the influenced degree,centrality and cause degree are analyzed to obtain strong driving risk factors and driving risk factors,and the entropy weight method is used to calculate the comprehensive importance of each risk factor,and finally get the key risk factors of coal mine gas explosion according to the sorting results.The results show that:safety education training and implementation,safety management organization,safety management culture,employee safety awareness,safety technology and investment are the keys to gas explosion disaster risk prevention.