基于前景理论的多灾点应急人员调度研究

Research on Emergency Personnel Scheduling under the Condition of Multiple Disaster Areas Based on Prospect Theory

为在具有多受灾点的大规模突发事件初期,科学合理地调度应急人员以减少突发事件的负面影响,考虑救援到达时间不确定的现实,引入前景理论刻画有限理性条件下灾民对救援到达时间和应急人员对应急任务的心理感知,构建以最大化时间满意度和任务胜任度为目标的应急人员调度优化模型;通过分析模型特征,提出了基于匈牙利算法的胜任度求解策略,并在此基础上设计了NSGA-II模型求解算法;算例分析表明,一方面,设计的NSGA-Ⅱ算法可快速准确地收敛,是解决多受灾点下应急人员调度问题的有效方法.另一方面,基于所建模型和胜任度求解策略可得到一系列Pareto前沿解供决策者进行选择,可为多受灾点下的应急人员调度及相关研究提供参考.参数分析表明,基于前景理论的时间满意度和任务胜任度,有效弥补了既有研究完全理性人假设的不足.

In the early stage of large-scale emergencies with multiple disaster areas,scientific and rational dispatching of emergency personnel can reduce the negative impact of emergencies.To this end,this paper considers the reality that the rescue arrival time is uncertain,and introduces prospect theory to describe the limited rational psychological perception of the victims on the rescue arrival time and the emergency team on emergency tasks.Further,an optimization model of emergency personnel scheduling is constructed with the goal of maximizing time satisfaction and task competence.By analyzing the characteristics of the model,a competency solution strategy based on the Hungarian algorithm is proposed,and the NSGA-II model solution algorithm is designed on this basis.The example analysis shows that the designed NSGA-Ⅱalgorithm can converge quickly and accurately,and it is an effective method to solve the problem of emergency personnel scheduling under multiple disaster areas;the model and competency solving strategy in this paper can obtain a series of Pareto frontier solutions for decision makers to choose,which can provide a reference for emergency personnel scheduling and related research with multiple disaster areas.The parametric analysis shows that the time satisfaction and task competency based on prospect theory can effectively make up for the deficiency of the fully rational person hypothesis in the existing research.