沈阳市采暖期数值预报模式分区预报效果检验

基于2019年11月至2020年3月采暖期沈阳市的环境空气质量监测数据,分析沈阳市不同区域采暖期空气质量特征,对NAQPMS模式AQI范围、级别和首要污染物及污染物浓度24 h预报能力进行评估,并对比模式对不同区域的预报能力。结果显示,不同区域污染特征相同,但污染程度有所差异。AQI范围、级别准确率102区域最低,111区域最高,首要污染物准确率109区域最高。NAQPMS模式预报对所有区域的O_(3)浓度,110至113区域的PM_(10),PM_(2.5)浓度,113区域的SO_(2)浓度,110区域的CO浓度均存在低估,其余均存在不同程度的高估。模式对109,110区域预报效果最好,2个区域中5项污染物浓度预报值均达到理想效果。

Based on the ambient air quality monitoring data of heating period in Shenyang from 2019 to 2020,the air quality status pollution characteristics of heating season in different areas of Shenyang were analyzed.At the same time,the prediction ability of NAQPMS model AQI,range,level,primary pollutants and contaminant concentration was evaluated for 24 h,and compared the prediction ability of the models for different regions.The results showed that,the pollution characteristics in different regions are the same,but the pollution degree is different.The lowest level,range and primary pollutants accuracy were in the 102^(#) area.The highest level,range accuracy were in the 111^(#) area,and the primary pollutants accuracy was in the 109^(#) area.NAQPMS model underestimates O_(3) concentration in all regions,PM_(10) and PM_(2.5) concentrations in 110-113^(#),SO_(2) concentrations in 113^(#) and NO_(2) concentrations in 110^(#),and the rest are overestimated to varying degrees.The model has the best forecast effect in 109^(#) and 110^(#) areas,and the forecast effect of five pollutants in the two areas has reached the ideal level.