社会保障面临的现代挑战:第二次人口结构转型

Modern Challenges to Social Security:The Second Demographic Transition

本文探讨了因人口统计学家所描述的“第二次人口结构转型”和一系列替代政策应对措施导致的现收现付、待遇确定型社会保险计划所面临的挑战。对于许多国家来讲,预期寿命的延长和不断下降的生育率威胁到传统社会保障体系的财政可持续性,因为随着退休老年人口比例的不断上升,劳动适龄缴费人口的比例正在下降。为了应对日益增长的公共支出压力,采取一系列政策改革有助于恢复社会保障的财政平衡。本文围绕这些措施分析了三大类改革,包括:渐进式和系统性的改革、强制性和自愿性的私有化改革以及以家庭为导向的福利制度。目前尚不清楚这些政策改革能在多大程度上平衡社会保障收支,且不会给下一代在职劳动力和退休人员造成经济损失。

This article examines the challenges to pay-as-you-go defined benefit social security programs arising from what demographers describe as the"second demographic transition"and a range of alternative policy responses.Increasing life-expectancy and declining fertility rates threaten the fiscal sustainability of conventional social security systems in many societies as the proportion of contributors from the working age population is shrinking amidst the rising proportion of retired elderly.In response to the growing pressure on public expenditures a series of policy reforms are available to help restore social security’s fiscal balance.Focusing on these measures,this article analyzes three broad categories of reform that include:incremental and systemic reforms,mandatory and voluntary private reforms and family-oriented benefits.The extent to which any of these policy reforms can balance the social security ledger without imposing financial sacrifices on the coming generation of workers and retirees remains unclear.