福建省城镇化水平与农村居民消费结构的协同分析与趋势预测

Collaborative Analysis and Trend Prediction of Urbanization Level and Consumption Structure of Rural Residents in Fujian Province

以福建省为例,利用2013—2019年数据,基于灰色系统理论测算福建省城镇化率与农村居民消费结构的关联度;之后运用GM(1,1)模型预测福建省2021—2025年福建省城镇化水平走势.研究结果显示:福建省城镇化水平与农村居民在居住、医疗保健、交通通信、文教娱乐类消费支出的平均关联度较高,依次为0.802、0.705、0.689、0.688;与食品、生活用品及服务、衣着类消费支出的平均关联度较低,依次为0.675、0.608、0.500.最后从加强基础设施建设、加快建设现代农业产业体系、实现城乡资源要素跨区域流动等三方面建言献策.

Taking Fujian Province as an example,this paper uses the data from 2013 to 2019 to calculate the correlation between the urbanization rate and the consumption structure of rural residents in Fujian Province based on the Gray System Theory.In the meanwhile,the GM(1,1)model is employed to predict the trend of urbanization level in Fujian Province from 2021 to 2025.The results of the study show that the average correlation between urbanization level and rural residents'consumption expenditure of Fujian Province in housing,medical care,transportation communication,culture,education and entertainment is higher,which is 0.802,0.705,0.689 and 0.688 respectively while those in food,daily necessities,services and clothing is lower,which is 0.675,0.608 and 0.500 respectively.Finally,suggestions are put forward from three aspects including strengthening infrastructure construction,accelerating the construction of modern agricultural industrial system and realizing the cross regional flow of urban and rural resource elements.