“双碳”目标下碳减排驱动我国制造业高质量发展研究

Research on Carbon Emission Reduction Driving the High Quality Development of China's Manufacturing Industry under the"Dual Carbon"Target

加快制造业绿色转型是“十四五”时期深入实施制造强国战略、推动我国制造业高质量发展的关键。基于我国2004—2020年间30个省区市的面板数据,运用广义最小二乘法、动态面板模型的广义矩估计(GMM)等方法,对“双碳”目标下碳排放影响制造业发展质量的内在机理进行实证检验。研究发现:①碳减排通过绿色技术创新中介效应提升制造业发展质量,同时对制造业结构升级具有显著的促进作用。②碳排放对各区域制造业发展质量的影响表现出一定的差异性,且对东中部地区的促进作用明显优于西部地区。此外,东部省份在政府支持力度和出口规模等方面对制造业发展质量的影响,相对高于中西部省份。③在用动态面板模型的GMM方法进行稳健性分析时,制造业发展质量与行业结构的碳排放系数均显著为负,但整体而言,行业结构的绝对值要比制造业发展质量的大,表明制造业结构优化对碳排放更具抑制作用。因此,应围绕“双碳”战略目标下的制造业高质量发展要求,坚持制造业低碳发展政策导向,加快行业绿色技术创新,因地制宜统筹各地区特色优势,发挥市场机制配置资源的决定性作用,以实现制造业的“智能化、绿色化、高端化”发展,推动制造业绿色化转型和高质量发展。

Accelerating the green transformation of manufacturing industry is the key to implementing the strategy of manufacturing power and promoting the high-quality development of China’s manufacturing industry during the 14 th Five-Year Plan period. The systematicness and leadership of China’s major strategic goal of dual carbon emission will bring multiple effects on the carbon emission reduction and green transformation by the improvement of ecological environment and industrial quality during the 14 th Five-Year Plan period and even in a longer period after that, and put forward higher requirements for driving high-quality development of China’s manufacturing industry through green technological innovation. Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2004 to 2020, this paper empirically tested the internal mechanism of carbon emission reduction affecting manufacturing development quality from the perspective of green technology innovation by using the generalized least square method and the generalized moment GMM of dynamic panel model, and then explored the high quality development path of China’s manufacturing industry based on the national major strategic background of the dual carbon target.The results show that:(1) From the internal mechanism of carbon emission reduction affecting the quality of manufacturing development, carbon emission reduction can improve the quality of manufacturing development through the intermediary effect of green technology innovation,and has a significant promoting effect on the upgrading of manufacturing structure. The realization mechanism is as follows: as an exogenous constraint mechanism, the dual carbon target takes carbon emission reduction as the starting point and promotes technological progress of the industry by inducing green technology innovation, which is conducive to the formation of lowcarbon development mode and the high-quality development of the manufacturing industry.(2)Carbon emission reduction can significantly improve the development quality of manufacturing industry. The influence of carbon emission on the development quality of manufacturing industry in different regions is different, and the promoting effect of the carbon emission on the development quality of manufacturing industry in the eastern and central regions is obviously better than that in the western regions. In addition, the influence of government support and export scale on the manufacturing development quality in eastern provinces is relatively higher than that in central and western provinces.(3) In the robust analysis using the GMM method of dynamic panel model, it is found that the carbon emission coefficient of manufacturing development quality and industry structure is significantly negative, but the absolute value of industry structure is larger than that of manufacturing development quality as a whole, indicating that the optimization of manufacturing structure has a significant inhibitory effect on the carbon emission. The internal reason is that the overall development quality improvement of the manufacturing industry under the dual carbon target is a relatively slow and gradual process compared with the structural optimization, and the manufacturing industry is more likely to achieve carbon emission reduction through the structural adjustment of green, low-carbon and clean production.Therefore, we should be around double carbon under the strategic goal of manufacturing high quality requirements, focus on manufacturing low carbon development policy guidance, accelerate industry green technological innovation and green transformation of the manufacturing industry, adjust measures to local conditions to plan as a whole the area characteristic advantage industry technology innovation resources, in order to realize the "intelligence, greening, highend" development of manufacturing industry and promote green manufacturing and high-quality development.