北京市地下水埋深短期预测方法研究

Study of Short-term Groundwater Depth Prediction in Beijing

地下水是我国城市地区重要的水资源。随着城市化快速发展,城市地区的地下水超采现象普遍且严重。北京市地下水埋深在2015年以前呈现持续增加的趋势,2016年以来地下水埋深开始减小,地下水位开始回升。为解析北京市地下水位变化规律,科学预测其未来变化趋势,指导地下水开采和综合治理工作,综合考虑南水北调工程和北京市压采措施,选取2015-2020年北京市平原区地下水埋深数据,采用灰色预测模型GM(1,1)、拟合算法和插值算法对北京市2021-2023年地下水埋深进行预测,并对预测结果展开分析,论证模型的合理性,同时针对北京市地下水位未来可能的变化提出了相关对策建议。

Groundwater is an important urban water resource. With the rapid development of economy and society,groundwater overexploitation is widespread and serious in urban areas. The groundwater depth has been increasing continuously before 2015 in Beijing. Since 2016, the groundwater level has begun to rise because of the groundwater depth decreasing. The variation of groundwater level in Beijing is analyzed and its trend in future is predicted to guide the groundwater exploitation and comprehensive treatment. Considering the South-to-North Water Diversion Project and reducing ground exploitation measures in Beijing, based on the underground water level data in the plain area of Beijing from 2015 to 2020, the groundwater depth in Beijing from 2021 to 2023 are predicted by grey forecasting model(GM)(1,1), fitting algorithm and interpolation algorithm. And the prediction results are analyzed to demonstrate the rationality of the model. Relevant suggestions are put forward for the possible changes of groundwater level in Beijing in future.