风电储能项目经济效果评价研究——基于系统动力学的平准化成本模型及应用分析

Study on economic effect evaluation of wind power energy storage project——Levelized cost model based on system dynamics and its application analysis

在平价上网时代,风电项目配置一定规模储能在降低弃风水平的同时,也提升了项目的投资风险。为科学地对不同储能方案进行比选,本文分析了电化学储能和电供热系统的成本和收益构成,构建了风电储能项目平准化发电成本(LCOE)系统动力学模型。并以某风电项目为例,根据LCOE测算结果对三种储能配置方案进行比选,进而结合内部收益率和净现值指标对最优方案的补贴边界条件进行分析。研究结果表明:所建模型可以直观反映风电储能项目LCOE在生命周期内的变化情况;与NPV指标结合,模型能够判断满足投资需求的边界条件。基于此,应将LCOE作为风电储能项目招标的关键指标,电热储能组合方案具有较强的推广价值,高比例储能风电项目的补贴标准需针对特定储能方案制定。

In the era of new energy on-grid price parity, the allocation of a certain scale of energy storage not only reduces the wind abandonment level of wind power projects, but also improves the investment risk of the project. In order to compare and select appropriate scheme from different energy storage schemes, this paper analyzes the cost and benefit composition of electrochemical energy storage and electric heating system, and constructs the levelized power generation cost(LCOE) system dynamics model of wind power energy storage project. Taking a wind power project as an example, the three energy storage allocation schemes are compared and selected according to the LCOE calculation results, and then the subsidy boundary conditions of the optimal scheme are analyzed in combination with the internal rate of return and net present value indicators. The results show that the model can directly reflect the changes of LCOE of wind power energy storage project in the life cycle;Combined with NPV index, the model can judge the boundary conditions that meet the investment demand.According to the research conclusions, the following enlightenment is drawn: LCOE should be taken as the key index of wind power storage project bidding, the electrothermal energy storage combination scheme has strong promotion value, and the subsidy standard of high proportion wind power storage projects should be formulated for specific schemes.