我国电力市场建设中的动态电价风险评估研究

Research on Dynamic Rate Risk Assessment in my country’s Power Market Construction

随着我国电力市场纵深化发展,维持电力交易市场稳定运行,合理评估电价风险具有重要意义。本文首先提出一种异常电价识别与指标评估相结合的电价风险评估方法;然后,根据市场动因,提炼反映电价风险的供需关系指标,再采用改进G1-CRITIC算法计算各项指标的权重,得出基于各项指标的异常点电价综合评价结果;最后根据评估结果简要分析电价风险成因。研究发现:采取异常点识别与指标评估结合的风险评估机制能有效提高电价风险的识别准确度,避免了仅考虑电价单一数据造成的风险误判,通过算例验证了该评估方法的有效性。因此,应进一步完善电价风险识别机制,将电价风险识别机制纳为电力市场建设的重要组成部分,完善电力市场规则建设。

With the longitudinal development of my country’s electric market, maintaining the stable operation of the power trading market, it is important to assess the risk of electricity price. This paper first proposes a combination of an abnormal electricity price identification and indicator assessment;then, according to the market motivation, refine the supply and demand relationship indicator reflecting the risk of electricity price, and then improves the weight of the G1-Critic algorithm to calculate the weights of various indicators. Comprehensive evaluation results based on abnormal point electricity price based on various indicators;finally analyzed the risk of electricity price based on the evaluation results. Studies have found that the risk assessment mechanism for adoption of abnormal point identification and indicator assessment can effectively improve the identification accuracy of electricity price risks, avoiding the risk misjudgment that only considers single data, and verifies the effectiveness of the assessment method. Therefore, the electricity price risk recognition mechanism should be further improved, and the electricity price risk identification mechanism is incorporated into an important part of the construction of electricity market, and improves the construction of electricity market rules.