非开放获取的引文劣势——一项针对反向翻转期刊的因果推断研究

Non-open Access Citation Disadvantage:A Causal Inference Study of the Reverse Flipping Journals

[目的/意义]开放获取模式对科学交流和学术发展做出巨大贡献,由此衍生的开放获取引文优势理论(OACA)已被多项研究证明。然而,部分学术期刊却出现了“反向翻转”现象,即从开放获取模式翻转回付费订阅模式,与OACA理论背道而驰。解析这一现象引发的引文劣势可为相关主体提供借鉴。[研究设计/方法]以12个反向翻转期刊上的18,615篇论文为数据集,采用因果推断方法中的匹配与双重差分模型,分析期刊反向翻转前、后所发表论文被引次数的差异。[结论/发现]反向翻转后,期刊上论文的被引次数显著降低,证明非开放获取的论文有显著的引文劣势。但是,这种劣势随时间推移逐渐减弱。[创新/价值]以之前研究者提及较少的“反向翻转”现象为研究对象,使用了因果推断方法揭示这一事件对期刊的影响,完善了开放获取相关理论。

[Purpose/Significance]The Open Access model has made great contributions to scientific communication and academic development,and the Open Access Citation Advantage Theory(OACA)derived from it has been proven by many studies.However,some academic journals have experienced the phenomenon of"reverse flip",that is,the flip from the open access model to the paid subscription model,which runs counter to the OACA theory.Analyzing the citation disadvantage caused by this phenomenon can provide suggestions for relevant subjects.[Design/Methodology]This study gathered 18,615 papers in 12 reverse-flip journals as the dataset,used matching and Difference in Difference(DiD)in causal inference,and analyzed the difference in citation counts between papers publish before and after the reverse flipping.[Findings/Conclusion]The study found that after reverse flipping,the citation counts of papers in these journals were significantly reduced,which confirms the citation disadvantage of papers in non-OA journals.But such disadvantage diminishes along with time.[Originality/Value]In this study,the phenomenon of"reverse flip"rarely mentioned by previous researchers is taken as the research object and the causal inference method is used to investigate its influence on the academic journals,which has made contribution to the theories related to Open Access.