四川省规模场猪伪狂犬病定性风险评估

Qualitative Risk Assessment on Pseudorabies in Intensive Swine Farms in Sichuan Province

为评估四川省规模场猪伪狂犬病(PR)发生风险,通过问卷调查了解省内种猪场、扩繁猪场、商品猪场的生产管理情况,用情景树法描述PR发生的风险路径,在世界动物卫生组织(OIE)风险评估框架下构建评估模型。根据问卷调查结果和本底调查数据,采用定性风险评估方式,用矩阵法估算各风险路径的风险值。结果显示,四川省规模场发生PR的高风险路径为引种、使用精液、未有效控制鼠害、未有效控制犬猫以及地理位置和饮水控制。近年来由于生物安全管理水平提高,经人、车、物、料等传统途径释放PR的风险大大降低,在各类型规模场开展PR净化的条件已较为成熟。在PR净化的同时开展风险评估,能帮助猪场找出风险漏洞,便于提出针对性的防控建议,为PR净化提供有力的技术支撑。

In order to assess possible risk of occurrence of pseudorabies(PR)in intensive swine farms in Sichuan Province,a questionnaire investigation was organized to identify the status of production and management in breeding farms,propagation farms and commercial farms in the province,risk paths of occurrence of PR were described by a scenario tree,and an assessment model was constructed within the risk evaluation framework proposed by OIE.Based on the results of investigation and background survey data,the risk value of each risk path was estimated by a matrix method through a qualitative risk assessment.The results showed that the high-risk paths of PR in the intensive farms in Sichuan Province included introduction of animals,use of semen,ineffective control of rodents,dogs and cats,geographical location and control of drinking water.The risk of PR transmission via personnel,vehicles,supplies,materials and other traditional pathways was greatly reduced due to improvement of bio-safety management level in recent years,and the conditions for PR purification in various intensive farms have been relatively mature.Risk assessment in combination with PR purification could help farms find out their own shortcomings related to risk and put forward targeted suggestions for prevention and control of the disease,which could provide strong technical support for PR purification.