人口老龄化、制度质量与产业结构升级

Population Aging,Institutional Quality and Upgrading of Industrial Structure

制度质量对人口老龄化产业结构升级效应具有重要影响。理论机制分析表明,制度质量可以通过降低企业交易成本和开创成本、促进人力资本投资和积累以及促进技术创新等机制,对人口老龄化的产业结构升级效应产生调节作用。进一步利用全球167个经济体较长时期的面板数据以及多种计量分析方法,实证研究人口老龄化的产业结构升级效应,以及制度质量对该效应的影响。结果显示:人口老龄化对产业结构升级产生了显著的促进作用,制度质量的提高对人口老龄化产业结构升级效应具有显著的正向调节作用。由此建议通过提升制度质量来促进人口老龄化背景下的产业结构升级。

The effect of population aging on the industrial upgrading depends on institutional quality.The theoretical mechanism analysis shows that the institutional quality can regulate the effect of population aging on the upgrading of industrial structure by reducing the transaction cost and start-up cost of enterprises,promoting human capital investment and technological innovation.Using a variety of econometric analysis methods,we estimate the effect of population aging on the industrial upgrading and the influence of institutional quality on this effect in a panel data of 167 countries.The results show that the population aging has a significant positive effect on industrial upgrading,and the improvement of institutional quality has a significant positive regulatory effect on this effect.Therefore,it is suggested to promote the industrial upgrading under the background of population aging by improving the institutional quality.