我国新冠肺炎疫情与气象条件的关系研究

Research on the Relationship between COVID-19 Epidemic and Meteorological Conditions in China

我国新冠肺炎疫情从一开始就呈现出冬半年疫情更为严重的态势,这与天气气候状况的季节性变化密切相关。基于此,本研究在梳理2020年1月9日至2022年2月28日我国新冠肺炎疫情数据、分析我国疫情演变特征的基础上,对比分析了新冠肺炎疫情与2003年急性重症呼吸综合征(SARS)疫情的前期气候背景,同时将新冠肺炎确诊高峰与环境空气温度(以下简称“温度”)展开统计分析,进而对确诊达到峰值的当日温度与当地纬度进行二次函数拟合,并利用国内反弹疫情事件(奥密克戎毒株除外)进行验证。结果表明,两次重大疫情发生之前,都出现了“厄尔尼诺”事件,且都突发于暖冬期间,由此产生“温床效应”。据统计,我国(未含港澳台地区)各省会城市疫情达到峰值(拐点)时当日对应温度阈值在5.0~14.8℃之间,其中,温度为9.2℃时累加确诊病例数达最多,总体上疫情高发时对应的温度阈值与当地的纬度符合二次函数关系,即高纬度地区疫情发生对应的温度阈值较低,低纬度地区则较高,且该二次函数同样适用于我国2020、2021年冬季反弹疫情。这一方面对国内外其他学者发现各地新冠肺炎疫情与空气温度之关系不一致的现象给出了科学阐释,另一方面可为新冠肺炎疫情反弹气候环境风险预测提供新的参考依据。

The outbreak of COVID-19 shows a more serious situation in winter,which is obviously closely related to the seasonal changes in weather and climate conditions.In view of this,on the basis of sorting out the data in China′s COVID-19 epidemic from January 9,2020 to February 28,2022,and analyzing the evolution characteristics of the epidemic in China.First,the pre-climatic background of the COVID-19 epidemic and SARS epidemic was compared and analyzed,and the peak of the diagnosis of COVID-19 and the ambient air temperature(referred to as“temperature”)were statistically analyzed,and then the temperature on the day when the daily confirmed cases reached the peak and the local latitude were fitted with a quadratic function.The rebound epidemic event has been verified.The results show that before the two major epidemics occurred,El Nino events occurred,and they broke out during the warm winter,which played a"hot bed effect".The corresponding temperature thresholds of the day when the epidemic situation reaches its peak(inflection point)is between 5.0℃and 14.8℃in China(excluding Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan regions),and the temperature threshold corresponding to the outbreak is in line with the quadratic function relationship with the local latitude,that is,the temperature threshold corresponding to the outbreak of the epidemic in high latitudes is lower,and the temperature in low latitudes is higher,and this quadratic function is also applicable to the rebound epidemic in China in 2020 and 2021.On the one hand,it provides a scientific explanation for the inconsistency between the relationship between the COVID-19 epidemic and temperature found by domestic and foreign scholars,and on the other hand,it can provide a new reference for the prediction of climate and environmental risks of the rebound of the COVID-19 epidemic.