黄河上游典型流域滑坡稳定性预测及模型应用

Landslide stability prediction and model application in typical watersheds of the upper Yellow River

黄河中上游地带是滑坡的易发区域,了解这些滑坡的空间分布对于黄河流域的生态环境治理与保护至关重要。三维确定性模型Scoops3D模型能很好地对滑坡稳定性进行定量化分析,但是关于输入参数对模型结果影响的研究很少。为了定量化分析不同输入参数组合对模型结果的影响,以黄河上游甲加沟为例,基于Scoops3D模型对滑坡的空间位置进行预测分析。并对影响模拟效果的两种因素(数字高程模型(DEM)分辨率和搜索面积)进行分析对比。通过输入不同的参数得出的模拟结果,发现DEM分辨率和滑坡搜索面积对模拟结果都有显著的影响。首先,DEM分辨率越高,模拟效果越好,但是也存在大量的过度识别;其次,对于同一DEM分辨率而言,不同的滑坡搜索范围对于模型结果的影响也不同,并且随着DEM分辨率越来越低,这种影响也越来越大;最后,低分辨率DEM条件下较大的搜索范围也能得到较好的模拟效果。因此,在为模型选择合适的参数时,要对区域的滑坡大小有充分了解,然后根据实际情况选择合适的参数。

The middle and upper reaches of the Yellow River are prone to landslides.Understanding the spatial distribution of landslides in this region is crucial to the management and protection of the ecological environment in the Yellow River Basin.The three-dimensional deterministic model,Scoops3D model,can quantitatively analyze landslide stability well,but the influence of input parameters on the model results is rarely studied.In order to quantitatively analyze the impact of different input parameter combinations on the model results,this paper took Jiajiagou in the upper reaches of the Yellow River as an example to predict and analyze the stability of landslides in the region based on the Scoops3D model,and analyze the two factors that affect the simulation effect(digital Elevation model(DEM)resolution and search area)for analysis and comparison.The simulation results with different input parameters showed that DEM resolution and landslide search area had significant effects on the simulation results.Firstly,the higher the DEM resolution,the better the simulation effect,but there was also a lot of over-identification.Secondly,for the same DEM resolution,different landslide search scope had different influence on the model results,and with the coarser DEM resolution,the influence would be greater.Finally,larger search range under the low-resolution DEM conditions could also achieve better simulation results.Therefore,in order to maximize the spatial stability prediction ability of Scoops3D model,it is necessary to have a full understanding of regional landslide size and select appropriate parameters according to the actual situation.