中国城镇居民代际流动的地区差异和理论解释

Regional Differences and Theoretical Explanations of the Intergenerational Mobility of Chinese Urban Residents

中国社会代际流动研究聚焦全国层面的汇总分析,掩盖了代际流动水平与代际传递机制的地区差异。本文以市辖区、县、县级市为分析单元,发现城镇居民代际流动水平呈一线、二三线、四线城市逐渐递减,由东向西逐渐下降的梯度式分布直接相对流动指数的空间格局恰好相反,表明东部及一线城市子代受家庭背景影响最小,向上流动空间最大,由先賦性因素传递的父代作用最弱父代经教育投资而对子代地位产生的间接影响有限,除东北地区偏低外,未见明显地区分异。市场机制理论视角对我国城镇居民代际流动的空间规律深具解释力,经济水平、城市化率、集聚经济均对提升代际流动水平、降低先赋性因素作用存在显著影响,收入不平等上升将加剧社会固化,科教文卫等领域的公共支出尚不足以改善社会结构开放性.

The intergenerational mobility research in China currently focused on national level,which masked regional differences in intergenerational mobility and intergenerational transmission mechanism.This article takes the districts of cities at prefecture-level and above,counties,and county-level cities as analysis units.The intergenerational mobility level of urban residents showed a gradually decreasing trend from the first-tier to the fourth-tier cities,and a descending tendency from east to west.In eastern and first-tier cities,children were least affected by family background.Their space for upward mobility was the greatest,and the direct effects of parents transmitted via antecedent factors were the weakest.The indirect impact of parents on the status of offspring through educational investment was limited.Except for the low level in Northeast China,there was no obvious regional differentiation.From the theoretical perspective of the market mechanism,economic level,urbanization rate and agglomeration economy had significant effects on improving intergenerational mobility and reducing the role of antecedent factors.Income inequality would exacerbate social solidification,while the redistributive policies failed to improve the openness of social structure.