风险决策中主张分歧的原因及其管理路径

Managing the Causes of Disagreements in Risk Decision-making

公共风险应对决策中的主张分歧主要由四类原因产生,即认知差异、利益差异、价值差异、政治对立。其关键影响因素分别为风险信息的不确定性程度,不同主体在风险承受能力上的差别程度,文化价值的多元化程度和张力强度,以及风险议题的政治化程度。其主要管理路径分别为根据风险的性质和发展阶段来适时适情选用专一选择、开放选择、区间共识三条路径,降低风险信息的不确定性;通过提供保护性措施和替代性措施两种路径,提高弱势群体对风险和风险应对措施的承受能力;建立各种文化间对话机制,促进不同文化间的相互理解、相互包容和交叉共识;建立专家主导的风险决策体系并构建命运共同体意识,将风险议题的处理尽可能专业化、技术化。综合运用四种分歧管理方式,可以在一定程度上降低风险决策中的主张分歧,有利于风险应对决策的及时作出和有效执行。

The disagreements in public risk decision-making are primarily caused by four kinds of reasons, which are cognitive differences, interest differences, value differences and political opposition. The key influencing factors of these reasons are the degree of uncertainty of risk information, the difference in risk tolerance of different groups, the diversity and tension of different cultural values, and the degree of the politicization of risk issues, respectively. The way to reduce the uncertainty of risk information is selecting specific choice, open choice and interval consensus according to the nature and development stage of risks;the way to improve the bearing capacity of the vulnerable groups to risk and risk response measures, is providing protective measures and alternative measures;the way to promote mutual understanding, tolerance and cross-consensus among different cultures is establishing dialogue mechanisms;the way to deal with risk issues more professionally and technically is establishing an expert-led risk decision-making system and constructing a sense of community of shared future. The comprehensive application of the four disagreement management methods can effectively reduce the divergences of opinions in risk decision-making, which is beneficial to timely risk decision-making and its effective implementation.