“十四五”时期地方政府一般公共预算收支预测及应对策略

Prediction and Countermeasures of the General Public Budget Revenue and Expenditure of Local Governments during the 14^(th) Five Year Plan Period

掌握“十四五”时期地方政府一般公共预算收支的变化态势,促进地方财政可持续发展,对于降低地方财政风险具有重要的现实意义。利用1994-2020年我国财政数据,构建单整自回归移动平均模型(ARIMA),分析了“十四五”时期地方政府一般公共预算的收支变化情况。研究表明,未来五年地方政府一般公共预算收入和支出分别保持年均3.25%和3.71%的低速增长;分区域与省份来看,发达地区的收入增长更加平稳,各省之间的收入差距继续拉大,而较发达和欠发达地区的支出增长波动性较大,各省之间的支出规模断层明显。整体上地方财政可持续发展空间将略微收窄,财政自给率由47.74%下降到46.53%,呈现“第一梯队持续向好,第二梯队下滑为主,第三梯队加速恶化”的分化格局。因此,需要从提高地方财政收入质量、增进地方财政支出效率和改进地方财政可持续发展空间三个方面寻求破解之策。

To grasp the changing trend of the general public budget revenue and expenditure of local governments and to promote the sustainable development of local finance during the 14;Five Year Plan period are of great realistic significance in reducing local financial risks. By making use of China’s financial data from 1994 to 2020 and constructing an integrated autoregressive moving average model, this paper analyzes the changing situations of the revenue and expenditure of local governments’ general public budgets during the 14^(th) Five Year Plan period. The findings show that during the future five years the revenue and expenditure of local governments’ general public budgets will maintain the lower average annual growths of 3.25% and 3.71% respectively. In terms of region and province, the income growths in developed regions are more stable, the income gap among provinces continues to widen, while the expenditure growths in relatively developed and undeveloped regions fluctuate more greatly and the fault of the expenditure scales among the provinces is obvious. On the whole, the room for the sustainable development of the local finance will be narrowed slightly, the financial self-sufficiency will be reduced from 47.74% to 46.53%, presenting a differentiation pattern that the first echelon continues to improve, the second echelon mainly declines, and the third echelon deteriorates quickly. Therefore, it is necessary to seek solutions from the three aspects: improving the quality of local financial revenue, enhancing the efficiency of local financial expenditure, and improving the room for sustainable development of local finance.