河南省生态系统脆弱性评价及时空变化特征分析

Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment and Spatial-temporal Variation Analysis in Henan Province

基于SRP(敏感-恢复-压力)模型,选取18个指标构建2010—2020年河南省生态脆弱性评价指标体系,通过主成分分析获得SRP模型各指标权重,并计算河南省生态脆弱性指数,同时对脆弱性进行评价;使用地理探测器分析模型各要素之间交互影响q值并进行要素驱动力分析.结果表明:河南省整体生态脆弱性呈西部、北部高,东部、南部低的分布特征;中部地区以郑州市为中心辐射的区域整体脆弱性等级明显高于其他区域;研究区域2010、2015、2020年3期生态脆弱性综合指数EVSI分别为2.47、2.56、2.36,整体生态环境呈转好趋势.对2010—2020年河南省生态脆弱性时空变化分析,豫西丘陵地区、伏牛山区、桐柏大别山区生态脆弱性有明显改善,而中部、北部和南阳盆地生态脆弱性升高;2015—2020年向好生态等级转移量大于2010—2015年,生态脆弱性等级向好区域主要分布于豫西地区、豫北地区、伏牛山区、桐柏山区,生态脆弱等级负向转变主要集中于郑州-洛阳-焦作城市群、黄淮海平原东部.对研究区域生态脆弱性变化时空演变的要素驱动力分析,造成河南省生态脆弱性变化空间分异的主要指标为夜间灯光、GDP、人口密度、植被覆盖度、植被净初生产力、土壤类型、水网密度和年降水,反映出诱发河南省生态环境发生变化主要因素为人类活动扰动、土壤、植被及水资源等因素,所以做好水土保持、森林植被抚育涵养水源、提升水资源保障能力、优化城市发展和布局、建立生态型城市仍是河南省生态保护工作持续努力的方向.开展河南省生态系统脆弱性研究,对中原地区环境承载能力评估、生态安全保障具有重要意义,以期为生态脆弱区生态恢复政策的制定提供科学理论依据.

Based on SRP(sensitivity-recovery-pressure)model,18 indexes were selected to construct the ecological vulnerability evaluation index system of Henan Province from 2010 to 2020.The weight of each index of SRP model was obtained through principal component analysis,and the ecological vulnerability index of Henan Province was calculated.At the same time,the ecological vulnerability was evaluated.Geographical detector was used to analyze the interaction q value among the factors of the model and analyze the driving force of the factors.The results show that the overall ecological vulnerability of Henan Province is higher in the west and north,and lower in the east and south.In the central region,the overall vulnerability level of the region radiating from Zhengzhou as the center is significantly higher than that of other regions.The comprehensive indexes of ecological vulnerability in the study area in 2010,2015 and 2020 are 2.47,2.56 and 2.36,and the overall ecological environment show a positive trend.The temporal and spatial change analysis of ecological vulnerability in Henan Province from 2010 to 2020 shows that the ecological vulnerability of the hilly area in western Henan Province,Funiu Mountain area,Tongbai-Dabie Mountain area has improved significantly,while the ecological vulnerability of the central area,the northern area and Nanyang Basin has increased.The amount of positive ecological grade transfer from 2015 to 2020 is larger than that from 2010 to 2015.The areas with positive ecological vulnerability transfer grades are mainly distributed in western Henan,northern Henan,Funiu Mountain area and Tongbai Mountain area,and the areas with negative ecological vulnerability transfer grades are mainly concentrated in Zhengzhou-Luoyang-Jiaozuo city group and the eastern part of Huang-Huai-Hai Plain.The main indexes that cause the spatial differentiation of ecological vulnerability change in Henan Province are nighttime light,GDP,population density,vegetation coverage,net primary productivity of vegetation,soil type,water network density and annual precipitation,which reflects that the main factors induce changes in the ecological environment in Henan Province are human activity disturbance,soil,vegetation and water resources.Therefore,doing these jobs,such as soil and water conservation,forest vegetation tending,water conservation,improving the capacity of water resource protection,optimizing urban development and layout,building ecological city,are still the direction of continuous efforts in the ecological protection of Henan Province.The study of ecosystem vulnerability in Henan Province is of great significance to the assessment of environmental carrying capacity and the guarantee of ecological security in the Central Plains region,so as to provide scientific theoretical basis for the formulation of ecological restoration policies in ecologically fragile areas.