长江经济带生态福利绩效空间差距及动态演变

Spatial Disparity and Dynamic Evolution of Ecological Welfare Performance in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

基于新发展理念构建评价指标体系,用改进后的SFA方法对2008—2019年长江经济带108个城市的生态福利绩效水平进行测度,并用Dagum基尼系数、Kernel核密度估计方法及Markov链等方法对这些城市生态福利绩效的空间差距及分布动态演进进行探讨.结果发现:①长江经济带城市生态福利绩效水平具有明显的空间非均衡特征,总体呈现“下游高、中游次之、上游低”的格局;②长江经济带总体差距、区域间差距和区域内差距都呈波动减小的趋势;③超变密度是造成空间非均衡的第一来源;④高水平生态福利绩效城市对与其相邻的城市存在正向促进作用,低水平生态福利绩效城市对与其相邻的城市则具有反向抑制作用.

Based on the new development concept,this paper constructs an evaluation index system.The improved SFA method is used to measure the ecological welfare performance of 108 cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from2008 to 2019.The Dagum Gini coefficient,kernel density estimation method and Markov chain are used to explore the spatial gap and distribution dynamic evolution of ecological welfare performance of these cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.The results show that:①The performance level of urban ecological welfare in the Yangtze River Economic Belt has obvious spatial non-equilibrium characteristics,and the overall spatial pattern is“high in the lower reaches,followed by the middle reaches,and low in the upper reaches”;②The overall gap,inter-regional gap and intra-regional gap of the Yangtze River Economic Belt are decreasing in fluctuation;③Hypervariable density is the first source of spatial imbalance;④High level ecological welfare cities have a positive effect on their adjacent cities,while low level ecological welfare cities have a reverse inhibitory effect.