“双碳”目标倒逼下能源安全与能源系统可持续性协调发展研究

Research on the Coordinated Development of Energy Security and Energy System Sustainability under the “Dual Carbon” Goal

兼顾能源安全和能源系统可持续性是以能源高质量发展为着力点推动社会经济发展的重要支撑,是实现“双碳”目标的重要抓手.在新时代能源安全概念和借鉴欧洲能源系统可持续性特征的基础上,分别构建能源安全和能源系统可持续综合评价指标体系;基于我国30个省(市、区)2000—2019年面板数据,运用熵权TOPSIS方法及耦合协调度模型对我国能源安全与能源系统可持续性进行了协调性分析,并采用Dagum基尼系数和空间重心法考察其空间格局及演进趋势.结果表明:考察期间能源安全呈波动性上升趋势,重心向西南方向偏移,能源系统可持续性发展与能源安全背离,重心向东南方向偏移;能源调出区拥有较高的能源安全保障,耦合类型为非持续型,但能源调入区的能源安全并没有显现出明显的优势,降低能源调入区与调出区间的差异是解决我国能源安全与能源系统可持续性非均衡问题的关键;虽能源系统可持续性能够得到能源安全的耦合支持,但两者协调程度较弱,没有形成共鸣与合力,协调发展重心向西南方向偏移.最后,为科学合理地推动能源高质量发展建言献策.

Taking into account energy security and energy system sustainability is an important support for promoting social and economic development with high-quality energy development as the focus,and an important starting point for achieving the“dual carbon”goal.This article builds a comprehensive evaluation index system for energy security and energy system sustainability based on the concept of energy security in the new era and the sustainability characteristics of the European energy system.Based on the panel data of 30 provinces(cities,districts)in China from 2000 to 2019,entropy weight TOPSIS method and coupling coordination degree model are used to analyze the coordination of energy security and energy system sustainability in China,and Dagum Gini coefficient and spatial center of gravity method are used to investigate its spatial pattern and evolution trend.The results show that during the research period,the development of energy security shows a fluctuating upward trend,and the center of gravity shifts to the southwest.The development of energy system sustainability deviates from energy security,and the center of gravity shifts to the southeast.The energy export area has a higher energy security guarantee,and the coupling type is non-sustainable,but the energy security of the energy import zone does not show obvious advantages.Reducing the difference between the energy import zone and the energy export zone is the key to solving the imbalanced problem of China’s energy security and energy system sustainability.Although the energy system sustainability can be supported by the coupling of energy security,the coordination degree between the two is weak,and the center of coordinated development shifts to the southwest.Finally,suggestions are made for scientific and reasonable promotion of high-quality energy development.