考虑不确定性的生物质电热气肥耦合系统规划方法

Optimal Design of Biomass Integrated Energy System Coupled with Electricity,Heat,Gas and Fertilizer under Uncertainty

在实现碳达峰、碳中和目标的快轨上,中国积极倡导生物质等清洁可持续能源的生产与消费,包含生物质的综合能源系统配置优化问题逐渐成为研究的热点。以生物质电热气肥多能流综合能源系统为研究对象,首先建立了系统中各关键设备的静态模型;其次,采用蒙特卡罗抽样法描述用户负荷、能源价格等不确定性因素,在此基础上以最大化年利润为目标,建立了不确定条件下综合能源系统配置规划模型,并选用人工蜂群优化算法进行求解;最后,研究了不确定性因素对综合能源系统配置优化的影响。算例结果表明,采用两阶段随机规划模型处理综合能源系统中存在的不确定性因素后,能源系统中设备运行参数有所变化,与确定条件相比,牺牲了一定的经济性来提高系统的灵活性。

China has actively advocated production and consumption of clean and sustainable energy such as biomass on the fast track to achieve goal of carbon peak and carbon neutralization.Optimization of integrated energy system configuration including biomass has gradually become a research hotspot.Research on biomass electric heating and gas fertilizer multi-energy flow integrated energy system was carried out.Firstly,static model of key equipment in the system was established.Secondly,Monte Carlo sampling method was used to describe uncertainty factors such as user load and energy price.On this basis,aiming at maximizing annual profit,an integrated energy system configuration planning model under uncertainty was established and solved by artificial bee colony optimization algorithm.Finally,influence of uncertainty factors on configuration optimization of integrated energy system was studied.Results showed that operation parameters of equipment in energy system were changed after two-stage stochastic programming model was used to deal with uncertain factors in integrated energy system.Compared with determined conditions,flexibility of the system was improved by sacrificing certain economy.