以情报机构为目标的自杀式恐怖袭击:基于卡方检验结论的成因及对策探究

Suicide Terrorist Attacks Targeting Intelligence Agencies:Causes and Countermeasures Based on Chi-square Test Conclusion

自2017年底国际反恐进入“后伊斯兰国”时代,大规模恐怖袭击事件减少,但伤害性强和影响力大的自杀式恐怖袭击在世界各地频现。以基于卡方检验得出的“情报机构遭受自杀式恐怖袭击的比率显著高于非情报机构”这一结论为研究起点,应用数据统计、文本分析方法探究此结论产生的原因,即自杀式恐怖袭击是面对情报机构的有效对抗形式、制胜战术、极端复仇手段,根据原因提出情报机构预测预防以及应对自杀式恐怖袭击的策略方法,一是通过借助国际组织力量和舆论压力抵制霸权主义,减少战乱状态;二是从机构、建筑和情报人员出发,防范机构、建筑受袭,加强情报人员保护;三是针对自杀式恐怖袭击,加强情报搜集工作,“反客为主”、亦攻亦防。

Since the end of 2017,the international counter-terrorism has entered the "post-Islamic State" era.Large-scale terrorist attacks have decreased and the highly damaging and influential suicide terrorist attacks happened frequently around the world.The study starts with the conclusion that the rate of suicide terrorist attacks is significantly higher in intelligence agencies than in non-intelligence agencies based on the Chi-square test,and applies statistical and textual analysis methods to investigate the reasons for this conclusion,i.e.,suicide terrorist attack is an effective form of confrontation,a winning tactic,and an extreme means of revenge against intelligence agencies.Based on the reasons,the first is to resist hegemony and reduce the state of war through the power of international organizations and public pressure;the second is to prevent attacks on institutional buildings and strengthen the protection of intelligence personnel from the perspective of both institutional buildings and intelligence personnel;the third is to strengthen intelligence collection,responding to suicide terrorist attacks on intelligence agencies by turning from a guest into a host as well as integrating attack and defense.