基于SEIQR模型的新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情趋势研究

Study on epidemic trend of COVID-19 based on SEIQR model

目的研究基于SEIQR模型对新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情发展情况的预测效果,为后疫情时代防控措施决策提供参考。方法从国家及湖北省卫生健康委员会公布的疫情数据,获取自2020年1月23日-3月8日的疫情信息,根据疫情影响程度分为武汉市、湖北省(不含武汉市)、全国(不含湖北省)三个流行水平,应用SEIQR模型进行预测,同时评价防控策略起效时间对疫情变化的影响以及评估输入病例带来的风险。结果SEIQR模型较好地预测了COVID-19疫情发展。防控措施的有效实施降低了病例大幅增长的风险。常态化疫情防控下输入病例带来的风险仍然较高。结论考虑隔离措施的传染病动力学模型能更好展示现实情况下的疫情变化趋势,也为评估疫情中防控措施提供理论支持。

Objective To study the COVID-19 epidemic situation prediction effect based on SEIQR model,and provide reference for prevention and control measures in the post-epidemic era.Methods The epidemic information from January 23 to March 8,2020 was obtained from the epidemic data released by the national and Hubei Health Committee.According to the influence degree of the epidemic situation,it was divided into three levels:Wuhan,Hubei(except Wuhan)and the national(except Hubei).The SEIQR model was applied to predict the development of the epidemic,and the impact of the effective time of prevention and control strategies on the change of the epidemic situation was evaluated,and the risk from imported case was assessed.Results The SEIQR model predicted the development of COVID-19 well.Effective implementation of prevention and control measures has reduced the risk of a significant increase in cases.Under the normalization of epidemic situation,the risk of imported cases was still high.Conclusions The dynamic model of infectious diseases considering isolation measures can better show the changing trend of epidemic situation and provide theoretical support for the evaluation of prevention and control measures in epidemic.