新结构经济学视角下金融结构对经济周期的门限效应检验

Threshold Effect Test of Financial Structure on Business Cycle from the Perspective of New Structural Economics

基于2001—2019年31个省份的面板数据,采用面板门限回归分析方法,检验了我国金融结构对经济周期的门限效应,研究发现:(1)金融内部结构对经济周期的影响不显著,金融占比对经济周期的影响为正,房地产部门占比对经济周期的影响显著为负;(2)当经济发展阶段作为门限变量时,金融内部结构对经济周期的影响存在显著的双重门限效应,金融占比对经济周期的影响从不显著变成显著为正,房地产部门占比对经济周期的影响逐步由正转负;(3)当金融内部结构偏离最优金融内部结构程度和TCI为门限变量时,金融内部结构、金融占比、房地产部门占比对经济周期的影响均不存在显著的门限效应;(4)当金融占比偏离最优金融占比程度为门限变量时,金融内部结构对经济周期不存在显著的门限效应,金融占比和房地产部门占比对经济周期存在显著的双重门限效应,金融占比门限效应的轨迹为“正—不显著—正”,房地产部门占比门限效应的轨迹为“正—负—正”。

Based on the panel data of 31 provinces from 2001 to 2019,the panel threshold regression analysis method was used to test the threshold effect of China’s financial structure on business cycle.The research conclusions found:(1)The financial internal structure does not have a significant impact on the business cycle;The proportion of finance in GDP has a significant positive impact on the business cycle;The impact of the real estate market on the business cycle is significantly negative.(2)When the economic development stage is used as a threshold variable,the financial internal structure has a significant dual threshold effect on the business cycle;the impact of financial proportion on the business cycle changed from not significant to significantly positive;the impact of the real estate sector on the business cycle gradually changes from positive to negative.(3)When the degree of financial internal structure deviating from the optimal financial internal structure and TCI are threshold variables,there is no significant threshold effect of financial internal structure,financial proportion and real estate sector proportion on business cycle.(4)When the degree of financial proportion deviating from the optimal financial proportion is threshold variable,there is no significant threshold effect of financial internal structure on business cycle,and there is a significant double threshold effect of financial proportion and real estate sector proportion on business cycle.The trajectory of financial proportion threshold effect is“positive-insignificant-positive”,and that of real estate sector proportion threshold effect is“positive-negative-positive”.