风向偏差角对风机功率预测的影响

The Influence of Wind Direction Deviation Angle on Wind Power Prediction

提高风电功率预测准确率对风电场和电力系统的稳定运行都具有重要意义。风机偏航系统理论上可使得风机叶片自动适应环境风向的变化,但风向偏差角仍普遍存在。应用国电集团江西省某风电场的实测数据,分析了风向偏差角的分布特征及其对风机输出功率的影响。结果表明:风向偏差角具有显著的正态分布特征及日变化规律,当风速一定时,风向偏差角越大,则风机输出功率越小。进一步将风向偏差角引入预测模型,发现可有效提升风电功率预测的准确性,预测相关系数提升0.9%,均方根误差降低7.9%、平均绝对误差降低8.6%,表明在风电功率预测模型中,考虑风向偏差角的影响具有积极意义。

Improving the accuracy of wind power prediction is of great significance to the stable operation of wind farms and the power system.Although the Yaw-control system of the wind turbine generator could make blades adapt to the change of ambient wind direction automatically in theory,the wind direction deviation angle exists generally.Based on the measured data of a wind farm in Jiangxi Province,the distribution characteristics of the wind direction deviation angle and its influence on the output power of wind turbine are analyzed.The results show that the wind direction deviation angle has significant normal distribution and diurnal variation;moreover,when the wind speed is fixed,the larger the wind direction deviation angle is,the smaller the output power is.If the wind direction deviation angle is introduced into the prediction model,the correlation coefficient of wind power prediction can be increased by 0.9%,while the root mean square error and mean absolute error are reduced by 7.9%and 8.6%,respectively.So,it is of positive significance to consider the influence of the wind direction deviation angle in the wind power prediction model.