浩吉铁路开通对煤炭货运市场的影响分析

Analyzing the Impact of Opening of Haoji Railway on Coal Freight Market

作为我国综合交通运输体系中的重要一员,浩吉铁路已全线建成并于2019年9月28日正式开通。浩吉铁路是世界一次建成的最长重载煤运铁路,其开通对我国铁路既有煤炭运输现状将产生重要影响。本文在分析浩吉铁路集疏运线路信息及吸引范围的基础上,结合煤炭货运市场发展现状,从现有沿海煤炭运输布局、“北煤南运”“西煤东调”格局变化以及煤炭货物运输改革新动向三个方面研究了浩吉铁路开通对我国煤炭货运市场产生的影响。浩吉铁路的开通加剧了部分地区煤炭货运市场的竞争,本文以国家能源集团为例,以“海进江”运输和铁路直达运输这两种国家能源集团所采用的主要煤炭运输方式为切入点,通过定量分析确定了这两种煤炭运输方式潜在转移到浩吉铁路的煤炭运输量,分析了浩吉铁路运营进一步成熟后对国家能源集团煤炭运输的影响趋势。

The Haoji Railway was completed and officially opened on September 28,2019,and is an important part of China’s comprehensive transportation system.As the world’s longest heavy-haul coal transportation railway,the operation of Haoji Railway positively impacts the existing coal transportation status of China’s railways.Based on analyzing the attraction scope of Haoji Railway’s collection and distribution routes,and combined with the development status of the coal freight market,this study examines the influence of the opening of Haoji Railway on China’s coal freight market from the following three aspects:the existing layout of coastal coal transportation,the change in the pattern of the“north coal transportation to the south”and“west coal transfer to the east”,and the new trend of the coal cargo transportation reform.As a result,the operation of Haoji Railway has intensified competition in the coal freight market in some regions.This study uses two main coal transportation methods adopted by the China Energy Investment Corporation,namely“sea-to-river”transportation and direct railway transportation,as the breakthrough point.Additionally,it determines the potential transfer of coal transportation volume of these two methods to theHaoji Railway through quantitative analysis.Furthermore,it analyzes the impact trend of the Haoji Railway operation on the coal transportation of the China Energy Investment Corporation.