中欧国际铁路货运需求预测及系统动力学仿真研究

A Prediction and System Dynamics Simulation Study of Freight Demand of Sino-Europe International Railway

中欧国际铁路货运需求发展受诸多因素影响,为明确各影响因素及其对货运需求发展的量化影响,本文采用灰熵法有效筛选与中欧国际铁路货运需求强相关的关键因素,分析宏观经贸与货运供需以及运输竞争约束等因素间多重反馈关系,在此基础上构建中欧国际铁路货运系统动力学模型,并采用Vensim软件仿真研究系统变量取值对货运需求波动影响差异性。仿真结果表明:模型预测中欧国际铁路货运需求在2023—2025年期间均保持在7000万t以上;中欧国际铁路货运需求水平对其他运输方式的竞争约束表现得最为敏感,提高中欧国际铁路货运竞争力是保障其货运需求增长的重点,目前不宜过快取消运价优惠等政策,并应进一步提升我国边境口岸通过能力;在交通运输系统总投资相对稳定的前提下,铁路过度投资也可能导致中欧国际综合运输体系发展失衡,限制中欧间总货运需求增长。后续还可进一步深入研究国际运价、运输时效、境外通道能力等具体因素对该货运系统需求的影响。

The development of Sino-Europe International Railway freight demand is affected by many factors.To clarify the influencing factors and their quantitative impact on the development of freight demand,the grey entropy method was used in this study to effectively screen the key factors strongly related to the demand for international railway freight between China and Europe.We also analyzed the multiple feedback relationship among macro-economy-trade,freight supply and demand,and competition constraints between different transportation modes.A dynamic model of the Sino-Europe International Railway freight system was constructed,and the Vensim software was employed to simulate and study the differences in the impact of system variables on the fluctuation of freight demand.The simulation results show that the model predicts that the Sino-Europe International Railway freight demand will exceed 70 million tons from 2023 to 2025.The factor of“competition of other modes of transportation”has the greatest influence on this value.Improving the competitiveness of the Sino-Europe international railway freight is the key to ensure its demand.At present,it is not appropriate to quickly cancel the preferential tariff policies.The carrying capacity of China’s border ports should be further improved.Excessive investment on railway can also lead to imbalance in the development of a comprehensive Sino-Europe international transportation system and limit the growth of its total freight demand.In a future study,the impact of specific factors such as international freight rate,transportation timeliness,and overseas channel capacity can be further analyzed.