长治市高分辨率大气污染源排放清单研究

Research on high-resolution emission inventory of air pollution sources in Changzhi

运用自下而上和自上而下相结合的方法,建立了长治市2016年高分辨率(3 km×3 km)大气污染源排放清单。结果显示,2016年长治市SO_(2)、NO_(x)、CO、挥发性有机物(VOCs)、NH_(3)、总悬浮颗粒物(TSP)、可吸入颗粒物(PM_(10))和细颗粒物(PM_(2.5))的排放量分别为52993、104716、946879、92493、21554、281821、133829、69230 t。其中,SO_(2)、NO_(x)、CO、PM_(10)和PM_(2.5)的主要贡献源为固定燃烧源,分别贡献了77%、51%、59%、40%、57%;VOCs、NH_(3)和TSP的主要贡献源分别是工艺过程源(57%)、农业源(77%)和扬尘源(45%)。长治市工业企业等点源排放主要集中分布于郊区、潞城市和屯留县,NH_(3)主要集中分布于农业较为发达的长子县。采用蒙特卡洛模拟方法计算了排放清单的不确定性,SO_(2)、NO_(x)、CO、VOCs、NH_(3)、TSP、PM_(10)和PM_(2.5)的95%置信区间不确定性分别为-20.1%~24.1%、-26.1%~34.4%、-34.1%~50.6%、-53.2%~116.7%、-43.0%~75.8%、-47.4%~84.8%、-35.7%~53.1%和-32.0%~48.3%。该排放清单反映了长治市大气污染物的分布特征,可为长治市复合型大气污染防治提供科学支撑。

A high-resolution(3 km×3 km)emission inventory of air pollution sources in Changzhi in 2016 was developed based on the“bottom-up”and“top-down”methods.The results showed that the total emission of SO_(2),NO_(x),CO,VOCs,NH_(3),TSP,PM_(10),and PM_(2.5) were 52993,104716,946879,92493,21554,281821,133829,and 69230 t,respectively.The fossil fuel combustion was the dominant contributor of SO_(2),NO_(x),CO,PM_(10),and PM_(2.5),accounting for 77%,51%,59%,40%and 57%,respectively.The major contributors of VOCs,NH_(3),and TSP were industrial process source(57%),agricultural source(77%),and dust source(45%),respectively.Air pollutants emission from point sources were mainly distributed in suburban area,Lucheng and Tunliu.Zhangzi with developed agriculture had the highest NH_(3) emission.The uncertainty of emission inventory was calculated by Monte Carlo simulation method,and the 95%confidence interval uncertainty of SO_(2),NO_(x),CO,VOCs,NH_(3),TSP,PM_(10),and PM_(2.5) were-20.1%-24.1%,-26.1%-34.4%,-34.1%-50.6%,-53.2%-116.7%,-43.0%-75.8%,-47.4%-84.8%,-35.7%-53.1%,and-32.0%-48.3%,respectively.This emission inventory could reflect the distribution characteristics of air pollutants in Changzhi,and provide scientific support for the prevention and control of compound air pollution in Changzhi.