达里诺尔湖流域土地利用变化的生态系统服务价值影响评价

Impacts of change of landuse on ecosystem service values in Dalinuoer Lake Basin

基于达里诺尔湖流域1980、1990、2000、2010、2019年共5期土地利用类型及转换数据,采用当量因子法计算了流域40年的生态系统服务价值,应用马尔科夫模型预测了不同时期土地利用类型转换对生态系统服务价值的影响。结果表明,达里诺尔湖流域土地利用格局的总体变化有利于生态保护,变化过程可分为1980—2010年的持续改善阶段和2010—2019年的相对下降阶段;流域生态系统服务价值在2010年达到相对最优,2001—2010年的土地利用类型转换最有利于未来生态系统服务价值的提高;2010年至今的土地利用格局和转换有退化趋势,可能原因是气候暖干化因素削弱了土地调控和生态环境管理措施的成效。未来需要加大土地利用调整力度向更高生态系统服务价值方向转变的力度,以重新回到最优状态。

Based on five periods(1980,1990,2000,2010,2019)of landuse types and conversion data,the equivalent factor method was used to calculate the ecosystem service value of the Dalinuoer Lake Basin in the past 40 years,and the Markov model was used to predict the impact of landuse conversion on ecosystem service value in different periods.The results showed that the overall change of landuse pattern in the past 40 years in the Dalinuoer Lake was beneficial to ecological protection.The change process could be divided into the continuous improvement stage from 1980 to 2010 and the relative decline stage from 2010 to 2019.The ecosystem service value in the basin was relatively optimal in 2010,and the landuse change in 2001-2010 was most conducive to the improvement of ecosystem service value in the future.The landuse pattern and conversion process from 2010 to now had a trend of degradation,the reasonable reason was that the factor of climate warming and drying weakened the effect of land control and ecological environment management measures.In the future,landuse adjustment efforts needed to be further intensified to shift to the direction of higher ecosystem service value,so as to return to the optimal state.