安徽省“碳达峰”实现路径的研究

Research on the realization path to achieve“Carbon Peak”for Anhui Province

针对中国提出2030年实现“碳达峰”的目标,作为处于工业化中期的内陆省份,安徽省面临着巨大的减碳压力。分析了安徽省2015—2019年碳排放总量和排放强度变化,对安徽省碳排放现状进行了分析讨论,并以2019年为基准年,依据对数平均迪氏指数法(LMDI)分解模型预测了基准情景、柔性低碳情景和刚性低碳情景下安徽省2020—2035年碳排放量。最后,针对安徽省实现2030年“碳达峰”所面临的问题,从多方面提出了安徽省“碳达峰”实现路径。研究结果有利于安徽省低碳经济的可持续发展,为安徽省碳排放达峰提供了切实可行的对策措施。

Given China’s goal of achieve“Carbon Peak”by 2030,Anhui Province as an underdeveloped inland province in the mid-industrialization stage was under great pressure to reduce carbon emissions.The total carbon emissions and emission intensity of Anhui Province from 2015 to 2019 were analyzed,and the current situation of carbon emissions in Anhui Province was discussed.The total amount of carbon emissions in Anhui Province for 2020-2035 was projected under the baseline scenario,the flexible low carbon scenario and the rigid low carbon scenario separately based on the LMDI decomposition model.Finally,the study proposed a pathway to achieve“Carbon Peak”by 2030 given the problems faced by Anhui Province.The study contributed to the sustainable development of a low-carbon economy in Anhui Province and provided practical countermeasures to achieve peak of carbon emissions.