美国对华高技术出口管制对制造业技术创新的影响分析

An Analysis of the Impact of Us High Tech Export Control on China's Manufacturing Technology Innovation

本文基于2009-2019年19个省市的数据,运用结构方程模型(SEM)分析美国对华高技术出口管制对制造业技术创新的影响效应,得出以下结论:第一,在美国加强高技术出口管制政策下,并没有阻碍中国制造业技术创新;第二,在美国严格的高技术出口管制政策和阻碍国际技术溢出效应的情况下,倒逼中国改变产业技术创新模式,最终促进了制造业技术创新;第三,在技术引进无法促进制造业技术创新情况下,美国出口管制政策是倒逼中国走上自主创新道路,通过增加内部科研经费投入强度,进而促进技术创新;第四,内源经费投入强度在出口管制与技术创新之间发挥中介效应,且惟一中介。基于实证分析和现实情况,提出对外开放和自主发展并存、降低企业税费负担等建议。

Based on the data of 19 provinces and cities from 2009 to 2019,this paper uses structural equation model(SEM)to analyze the impact of US high-tech export control on manufacturing technology innovation,and draws the following conclusions:first,under the US policy of strengthening high-tech export control,China's manufacturing technology innovation is not hindered;Second,under the circumstances of the strict high-tech export control policy of the United States and hindering the international technology spillover effect,China is forced to change the mode of industrial technological innovation,which eventually promotes the technological innovation of manufacturing industry;Third,in the case that technology introduction can not promote technological innovation in manufacturing industry,the US export control policy is an opportunity and challenge to force China to embark on the road of independent innovation,which can promote technological innovation by increasing the intensity of internal research funding;Fourthly,the intensity of endogenous financial input plays an intermediary role between export control and technological innovation,and it is the only intermediary.Based on the empirical analysis and the actual situation,this paper puts forward some suggestions,such as the coexistence of opening up and independent development,reducing the tax burden of enterprises and so on.